Four Top Mining Stocks Positioned to Beat Q4 2025 Earnings Estimates Amid Metal Price Rally

The mining sector delivered strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by a surge in precious metals and base metal prices that created favorable conditions for top mining stocks. Within the broader Basic Materials sector—which is among 11 of 16 Zacks sectors expected to show year-over-year earnings growth this quarter—mining companies particularly benefited from commodity strength. Sector earnings are projected to rise 2.8%, driven primarily by a 9.5% surge in revenues as higher realized metal prices bolstered profitability across the industry.

Amid this bullish backdrop, four prominent mining companies—HudBay Minerals (HBM), First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF), Teck Resources (TECK), and Lundin Mining (LUNMF)—stand out as likely candidates to beat consensus earnings expectations while delivering improved year-over-year results. These top mining stocks all combine favorable technical metrics with exposure to the metal price tailwinds that characterized the quarter.

Market Tailwinds: How Metal Prices Transformed Mining Stock Fundamentals in Q4

The fourth quarter of 2025 witnessed exceptional strength across the commodity complex, with precious metals leading the charge. Gold reached a quarterly high of $4,557 per ounce, while average prices soared 55% year-over-year to an unprecedented $4,135 per ounce. Central bank accumulation and safe-haven demand drove this rally, supported by record quarterly gold demand of 1,303 tons—the highest ever recorded for a fourth quarter. Within this total, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows contributed 175 tons, while bar and coin demand hit a 12-year peak.

Silver exhibited similarly impressive performance, with quarterly highs reaching $82.67 per ounce and average prices surging 74% year-over-year. Persistent supply deficits combined with steady industrial application demand and flight-to-safety positioning to sustain the rally.

Beyond precious metals, copper—a critical gauge of industrial health and renewable energy adoption—traded between $4.80 and $5.89 per pound, with quarterly averages of $5.21 representing a 22% year-over-year increase. Electrification spending, renewable energy deployment, and grid infrastructure investment underpinned demand, while supply constraints added additional support.

Other base metals also participated in the rally. Zinc prices trended higher throughout the quarter as industrial activity rebounded and inventories tightened, while nickel initially faced headwinds from Indonesian oversupply before recovering sharply when Indonesia signaled plans to restrict exports in 2026.

For diversified miners with meaningful copper and base metals exposure—including the four top mining stocks highlighted here—these price dynamics delivered substantial revenue uplift. However, this benefit came with an operational challenge.

Operating Margin Pressure: The Hidden Challenge Behind Revenue Growth

While soaring metal prices expanded top-line revenues substantially, mining operations faced significant headwinds on the cost side. Higher input costs, labor expenses, and energy prices compressed margins across the industry in Q4 2025. To mitigate this margin pressure, mining companies pursued multiple strategies: improving operational throughput, optimizing their asset portfolios, and shifting production focus toward higher-grade ore bodies that require less energy and material inputs.

This cost management effort is reflected in company-specific production dynamics heading into Q4 results.

The Four Mining Companies Leading Earnings Beat Expectations

HudBay Minerals entered the quarter with an Earnings ESP (earnings surprise probability metric) of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold). The company is scheduled to announce Q4 2025 results on February 20. The consensus earnings estimate of 41 cents per share implies a 127.8% jump from the year-ago quarter, with the estimate having moved up 36.7% over the preceding 60 days. Importantly, HudBay maintains an average earnings surprise of 40.7% over the trailing four quarters, suggesting a track record of beating expectations.

During Q4, HudBay produced approximately 33,069 tons of copper, 84,298 ounces of gold, 1 million ounces of silver, 5,703 tons of zinc, and 325 tons of molybdenum. While most metals declined year-over-year (copper down 24%, gold down 10%, zinc down 32%, silver down 24%), molybdenum production surged 67%. Critically, the company’s industry-leading cost management should have allowed significantly higher metal prices to more than compensate for lower volumes, supporting margin expansion despite operational headwinds.

First Quantum Minerals boasts the strongest technical setup among the four, with an Earnings ESP of +26.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company reports Q4 results on February 10. The consensus earnings forecast of 7 cents per share represents a 75% increase versus the prior year, with the estimate having climbed 40% in recent weeks. First Quantum’s average earnings surprise rate of 47.2% over the past four quarters indicates consistent beat potential.

Production in Q4 totaled 101,000 tons of copper (down 10% YoY), 37,000 ounces of gold (down 5% YoY), and 9,000 tons of nickel (up 125% YoY due to strong Trident-Enterprise output). Sales volumes declined modestly—108,000 tons of copper sold, down 4%—but higher commodity realization is anticipated to have offset this headwind substantially.

Teck Resources demonstrates an Earnings ESP of +25.77% alongside a Zacks Rank of 3, with results due February 19. The consensus earnings estimate of 53 cents per share signals a 60.6% year-over-year increase, having moved up 43.2% over the past 60 days. The company’s exceptional 50.3% average earnings surprise rate underscores its propensity to beat estimates.

Production strength was evident in copper output, which rose 9.9% year-over-year to 134,100 tons despite a 5.1% decline in copper sales to 118,600 tons. Zinc production fell 26% to 108,600 tons amid an inventory drawdown, though the company flagged $295 million in expected positive pricing adjustments for Q4—a substantial benefit from the metal price strength that should significantly bolster reported earnings.

Lundin Mining completes the quartet with an Earnings ESP of +11.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company releases Q4 2025 results on February 18. The consensus earnings estimate of 30 cents per share implies a 150% year-over-year surge. Though Lundin carries a slight negative earnings surprise history of -1.7% on average, the positive ESP and strong estimate momentum suggest a potential beat.

Q4 copper production reached 87,032 tons, down 14% year-over-year, while gold output fell 27% to 34,129 ounces. However, lower production volumes are expected to be negated by the pronounced increase in realized metal prices, coupled with cost improvements at key operations (Caserones, Chapada, and Eagle).

How to Identify Top Mining Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises

Selecting mining stocks most likely to beat earnings might appear complex, but a straightforward methodology can improve odds significantly. The Zacks research approach combines two criteria: (1) a positive Earnings ESP (the percentage variance between the Most Accurate Estimate and Zacks Consensus Estimate) paired with (2) a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold). Stocks meeting both criteria historically deliver earnings surprises approximately 70% of the time.

All four mining companies reviewed here satisfy this dual criteria, positioning them as elevated-probability candidates for Q4 earnings beats. The Earnings ESP metric specifically targets stocks with the best chances to surprise, making it a valuable filter for investors anticipating earnings season volatility.