Day 20 · The Lie of Compound Interest: Why Most People Can't Enjoy the Rose of Time

Good morning, cycle-crossing practitioners.
Today is #币圈100天成长计划 day 20 out of 100.
🌹 We are all taught: "Hold long-term, enjoy compound interest."
But few people tell you: The premise of compound interest is that you can survive every market crash and keep your position unchanged.
Data shows:
Over the past five years, Bitcoin's annualized return has exceeded 50%—if you could hold through every cycle.
But the reality is: 95% of people get off midway, panic sell during crashes, FOMO back in after surges, repeatedly wearing down their principal and confidence.
Compound interest never fails; human nature does.
💎 Today's core insight: Three hidden prerequisites for compound interest
1. You must have a capital structure that "does not force you to sell"
▫️ If you're using leverage, short-term funds, or money affecting your life, then when a crash occurs, you have no choice.
▫️ The first prerequisite for compound interest: Your capital's time horizon must be longer than the market cycle.
2. You must accept "most of the time, no significant fluctuations"
▫️ Over the past decade, Bitcoin has spent over 80% of the time sideways or declining.
▫️ True compound interest only occurs during the remaining 20% of explosive periods. But if you're not present, the explosion has nothing to do with you.
▫️ The second prerequisite for compound interest: You can endure long waits and not be tempted to exit by intermediate "opportunities."
3. You must be able to make rational decisions during crashes
▫️ On March 12, 2020, Bitcoin dropped over 50% in a single day. That day, some despairingly sold, others mortgaged and borrowed to buy the dip.
▫️ The same market, same candlestick, different decisions—determining the wealth divide over the next five years.
▫️ The third prerequisite for compound interest: Your emotional system can withstand extreme volatility without collapsing.
✨ Today's action: Conduct a stress test for your "path of compound interest"
Take a piece of paper and honestly answer the following questions:
▫️ Capital test: If the market drops 50% tomorrow, do I need to sell to survive? Will my position trigger liquidation?
▫️ Time test: How long am I willing to wait for this investment? If it doesn't rise in three years, can I accept that?
▫️ Emotional test: Looking back over the past year, how many wrong decisions did I make during market panic? What were the triggers at that time?
If your answers make you uneasy, it's still time to adjust:
▫️ Reduce leverage until you can sleep peacefully
▫️ Shorten your horizon, only hold assets you truly understand
▫️ Build a system, replace emotions with rules
Compound interest is not a function of time, but a function of survival.
You don't need to be smarter than others; you just need to outlive most people.
👇 What was the most testing crash for your "belief in compound interest"? What kept you going (or made you regret exiting)?
Share your story, so we can strengthen our courage to cycle through the ups and downs together.