Fear and testing: how Bitcoin passes its first major resilience test

The past few weeks have become a critical moment for the crypto market. After a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price, investors faced a wave of panic — the information space was filled with predictions of catastrophe and scenarios of deep downturns. Although such periods of fear seem threatening, they often mark important turning points in the market.

The Panic Wave: When FUD Becomes the Peak of Negativity

The current level of misinformation and fear among retail investors has reached its highest point since the major crash in November. History shows a clear pattern: such spikes of negativity usually precede the formation of local bottoms and subsequent price recovery. Structurally, the current rebound repeats the scenarios of the two previous waves of panic and uncertainty — this is not a coincidence but a pattern that should alert panic sellers.

Gloomy sentiments on social media contrast with the fundamental situation in the market, where technical parameters remain relatively stable. Investors should distinguish between emotional surges and real market changes.

The First Test for ETFs: Pressure on Institutions and a Test of Resilience

Bitcoin fell below the $84,000 level — the average cost basis for holders of U.S. spot ETFs. This marked a critical moment, representing the first serious stress test for institutional investors. At this price, they are experiencing their first net unrealized losses on their positions.

This tests the hypothesis: will institutions withstand the pressure and continue accumulating on dips, or will they join the panic and start mass asset sell-offs? The current BTC price at $69.84K shows relative stabilization after the drop, but psychological pressure on investors remains high.

Amid uncertainty, extreme forecasts emerge — up to scenarios with Bitcoin at $25,000 in 2026. However, such estimates reflect not a balanced analysis but the current level of fear and panic feelings.

From Fear to Opportunities: Asymmetric Risks Shape Prospects

The market is in a transitional phase between retail fear and testing the resilience of the institutional base. It is precisely under such conditions that asymmetric risk-reward zones form — situations where potential gains significantly outweigh possible losses.

The key observation is not to follow emotional fluctuations in the information flow but to monitor the market’s real reaction to dips. Once the positions of major investors become clear, panic often gives way to recovery. The current period of fear may be the last wave of uncertainty before a new growth phase.