Rivian Surges On Upgrades As Attention Turns To Its New Tesla Model Y Competitor

Rivian (RIVN) stock soared Friday as the EV startup receives several upgrades following fourth-quarter earnings, with attention turning to its new R2 vehicle, which could be a major competitor to the top-selling Tesla (TSLA) Model Y.

Irvine, Calif.-based Rivian announced late Thursday a smaller-than-expected Q4 loss of 53 cents per share. However, that loss was slightly larger than a year ago. Meanwhile, fourth-quarter revenue declined 26% to $1.28 billion, as the end of U.S. EV credits slammed demand. Ahead of earnings, analysts forecast a loss of 70 cents per share with sales totaling $1.24 billion, according to FactSet.

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Looking to 2026, Rivian announced Thursday that it expects to deliver 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, which would represent about 50% growth vs. 2025. Analysts had forecast about 66,000 deliveries in 2026.

Rivian expects about 9,000-11,000 vehicle deliveries in each of the first two quarters, with R2 units ramping up in the second half of the year.

The EV company forecasts capital expenditures around $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion in 2026 with adjusted EBITDA losses of $1.8 billion-$2.1 billion.

Much of the attention is on Rivian’s upcoming R2 electric SUV, which is expected to be priced starting around $45,000 and be a direct competitor with the Tesla Model Y. Several initial reviews dropped in the days before the earnings report.

Rivian said Thursday that R2 deliveries are expected to begin the Q2 2026, adding that it will “reveal additional product and lineup details” on March 12.

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Upgrades Following Earnings

Early Friday, UBS upgraded Rivian to neutral from sell with a price target of 16, up from 15. Deutsche Bank also upgraded Rivian to buy from hold with a price target of 23, up from 16.

The Deutsche Bank analysts wrote Friday that Rivian’s “prospects are inflecting” and that 2026 looks “de-risked” as volume expectations are “reasonable” and its vehicle costs continue to improve.

The firm added that the R2 launch is on track for Q2 at a time when competitors are “slow-walking” electric vehicle transitions.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco on Friday wrote that 2026 guidance is “reliant on a strong R2 ramp” and stable demand for its other vehicles. Percoco remains underweight on RIVN with a price target of 12.

The analyst wrote Friday that this is “underpinned by our expectation for weaker-than-expected R2 demand into the teeth of an EV demand slowdown.”

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, wrote Friday that he continues to “remain confident” in Rivian’s “long-term vision” as it prepares to “ramp its R2 and midsize platform supply chains starting in FY26.”

Ives remains outperform on RIVN with a 25 price target on the stock.

Rivian Stock Performance

RIVN stock roared 26.6% to 17.73 in regular stock market action on Friday, moving above its 50-day moving average. The stock fell about 5.2% to 14 on Thursday.

The EV startup ended the stock market on Friday down 10.3% in 2026. The stock had tumbled below the 50-day and the 200-day line after declining more than 25% in January.

Last month, federal regulators announced that Rivian is recalling 19,641 previously serviced R1S and R1T vehicles, citing incorrectly assembled rear toe link.

Rivian previously reported that it produced 10,974 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois and delivered 9,745 vehicles in Q4. For 2025, Rivian produced 42,284 vehicles and delivered 42,247 vehicles.

Rivian in December 2025 announced its own AI and autonomy strategy, including an in-house developed custom silicon chip and autonomy platform.

The stock has a 51 Composite Rating. Rivian stock also has an 83 Relative Strength Rating and a 19 EPS Rating.

Meanwhile, Tesla stock gained a fraction on Friday to 417.44 after falling 2.6% to 417.07 on Thursday. The EV giant ended Friday’s trading down 7.3% in 2026, modestly below its 50-day line.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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