Gold Price Forecast for 2024–2030: A Bullish Outlook Based on Technical Analysis and Market Trends

As initially anticipated, gold prices performed a strong rally in 2024, reaching levels around $2,600. Considering the current market environment as of February 2026, it is necessary to reassess future gold price forecasts. Based on the methodology established by the InvestingHaven analysis team over 15 years, we will project the gold market outlook for the coming years.

Technical Signals Indicating a Bullish Reversal in Gold Prices

The long-term chart of gold shows highly convincing bullish signals. Looking at data from the past 50 years, two key bullish reversal patterns can be identified.

The first is a long-term descending wedge from the 1980s to the 1990s, and the second is the cup-and-handle formation from 2013 to 2023. Notably, the latter pattern has persisted for a decade, and its strength suggests a robust upward trend ahead.

According to fundamental principles of technical analysis, longer consolidation periods increase the reliability of patterns. Therefore, the current gold market is expected to continue rising steadily over several years. When viewed on a 20-year timeline, past bullish phases tend to start slowly and accelerate toward the end. Consequently, the current forecast for gold prices is a scenario of gradual but steady increase.

Interestingly, from early 2024, gold has begun setting new all-time highs not only against the US dollar but also across major global currencies. This phenomenon confirms the bullish trend in gold, reflecting more than just dollar weakness; it indicates expanding global demand for gold.

Inflation Expectations as the Core Driver of Gold Price Forecasts

The most critical fundamental factor influencing gold price movements is inflation expectations. Compared to traditional indicators like supply and demand, economic outlooks, or recession signals, inflation expectations are the true driving force behind gold.

Examining the correlation with TIP ETFs (inflation-linked bonds), both have formed long-term upward channels, supporting the bullish gold trend. While occasional deviations occur historically, the overall correlation remains positive.

An interesting point is that TIP ETFs also show a strong correlation with the S&P 500, implying that gold is linked to the stock market through inflation expectations. This correlation challenges the common perception that gold only shines during recessions. Instead, gold tends to perform best when inflation accelerates.

Global Currency Bullishness and the Outlook for 2026

The trends in M2 (money supply) and CPI (consumer price index) are essential indicators for constructing gold price forecasts. Since 2024, both have shown steady upward trajectories, underpinning a mild bullish bias in gold.

Of particular note is the beginning of the convergence between gold and M2 after a divergence early in 2024. This correction suggests a self-correcting market mechanism, with ongoing catch-up expected.

Historically, currency bases and gold tend to move in the same direction, with gold often outpacing the growth of the monetary base. However, such divergences are usually temporary. Currently, the environment indicates that increases in the money supply will directly influence gold prices, a trend expected to persist from 2026 through 2030.

Leading Indicators Influencing Gold: Currency, Bonds, and Futures Markets

Several leading indicators play crucial roles in assessing the direction of gold prices.

Currency and bond markets are particularly noteworthy. The long-term chart of EUR/USD shows a constructive pattern, indicating a favorable environment for gold. Generally, a bullish euro correlates with rising gold prices, while a strengthening US dollar tends to exert downward pressure.

Regarding bonds, after bottoming in mid-2023, an upward trend has been established. This movement following peak interest rates creates a supportive environment for gold. With global interest rate cuts anticipated, the limited upward pressure on bond yields further supports gold.

Analysis of the COMEX futures market reveals an expansion of net short positions among commercial traders. When these positions become overly stretched, it can limit upward potential for gold. Currently, positioning remains high, suggesting a scenario of gradual rather than explosive gains.

Convergence and Divergence in Major Financial Institutions’ Gold Price Forecasts

Several major financial institutions have projected gold prices for 2025–2026, with most converging in the range of $2,700–$2,800. These estimates reflect market consensus.

However, some institutions, such as Commerzbank ($2,600) and ANZ ($2,805), show slight deviations, illustrating differing outlooks.

Particularly noteworthy is Macquarie’s forecast, which anticipates a peak of $2,463 in Q1 2025, followed by a rapid surge to $3,000 per ounce. This suggests a short-term correction before a more bullish phase.

InvestingHaven’s forecast of approximately $3,100 in 2025 is more bullish than others, reflecting confidence in the strong long-term pattern and rising inflation expectations.

Multi-Year Outlook and Path Toward 2030

Summarizing the outlook, the following scenario appears plausible:

• Early 2026: Current market conditions are unfolding as expected, with prices ranging between $2,300 and $3,100.
• 2026–2027: Gradual rise toward $2,800–$3,900.
• 2030: Gold peaks around $5,000.

Conditions that could invalidate this forecast are highly limited. A decline below $1,770 would challenge the bullish hypothesis. However, given the current macroeconomic environment, rising inflation expectations, and strong technical signals, the probability of such a downside scenario materializing is very low.

InvestingHaven’s team has accurately predicted gold prices over the past five years, demonstrating the robustness of their methodology. The 2024 forecast of $2,200 and $2,555 was achieved by August 2024, confirming their high predictive accuracy.

Strategic Recommendations for Investors Based on Gold Price Outlook

In terms of asset allocation, the clear strategy is as follows: gold is expected to remain stable and steadily rise, while silver offers explosive potential in the later stages of the bull market.

As evidenced by the past 50 years of the gold-silver ratio chart, silver tends to accelerate sharply during the final phase of a gold bull market. The current environment suggests an early stage of a declining gold-silver ratio (i.e., silver gaining relative strength), warranting close attention.

From a portfolio perspective, positioning gold as a hedge in an environment of rising inflation is essential. While consensus targets of $2,700–$2,800 are reasonable, a phased accumulation toward more bullish targets above $3,000 can be a prudent long-term strategy.

Between 2026 and 2030, gold will evolve from a speculative asset to a key asset class with inflation-resistant properties, establishing its role as a critical component of diversified portfolios.