Tardigrade's Reproduction of Dogecoin Cycle: Similar Technical Patterns, but Breakthrough Signals Are Absent

Trader Tardigrade recently shared a monthly chart analysis of Dogecoin, sparking heated discussion in trading communities. The chart outlines an interesting phenomenon: the current DOGE trend closely resembles the patterns seen before the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, both of which experienced prolonged “round bottom” consolidation phases followed by explosive price breakthroughs. Tardigrade pointed out that Dogecoin has completed the first phase of the current cycle, and the structure it now presents is quite consistent with the previous cycle.

Traders Discover Historical Patterns: DOGE Monthly Chart Shows Familiar Ascending Wedge

According to Tardigrade’s analysis framework, Dogecoin’s monthly chart is forming an ascending wedge pattern, which historically often signals an imminent directional breakout. Similar bottom formations appeared in 2017 and 2021, each followed by significant market moves. The current structure is very much in line with these past examples, fueling many analysts’ optimism about DOGE’s future prospects.

However, a similar pattern alone is not enough to justify trading actions. The market needs a clear breakout confirmation.

Pattern Similarity vs. Confirmation Signals: A Contradiction

This is the current dilemma. While technical charts show positive signals, the actual “ignition” moment has not yet arrived. Prices are still oscillating within the confirmation zone, and the market is waiting for a definitive break to validate the bullish pattern. Many traders remain on the sidelines, waiting for confirmation before entering.

This cautious attitude reflects market prudence—no matter how good the pattern, no trade until confirmation.

On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth: Most DOGE Holders Are Still in Loss

Compared to optimistic technicals, on-chain data paints a more complex picture. According to Glassnode, a significant portion of DOGE holders are currently in loss. As prices decline, more wallets have an average cost basis above the current price. This phenomenon has persisted since last year, indicating cautious or even pessimistic market sentiment.

Historically, such “supply loss” states are not unfamiliar in DOGE’s past movements. At the end of 2018, mid-2020, and after peaks in 2021, similar phases occurred. In each case, the market eventually recovered through time, restoring sentiment and prices, though the recovery periods varied in length.

Technical Indicators Signal Short-Term Weakness

Currently, DOGE trades around $0.10, with a 7-day decline of 1.95%. Intraday, the momentum remains weak, with buying pressure not yet strong enough and trading volume subdued.

From a momentum indicator perspective, this weakness is even more evident. RSI approaches oversold territory but shows no signs of rebound; MACD remains below zero, with the two lines diverging. These signals collectively suggest that, in the short term, the market is dominated by bearish sentiment, and a trend reversal is not imminent.

Waiting for a Breakout—Will History Repeat?

Long-term patterns and historical breakout formations are resonant, but the current market remains under a bearish cloud. Flat volume, downward price trend, and cautious market sentiment form the backdrop.

In response, trader sentiment is divided: some prefer to wait patiently for the confirmation signal Tardigrade mentioned, while others choose to remain on the sidelines, unaffected by the pattern.

History often repeats in rhythm, but rarely in simple duplication. Whether DOGE can once again stage a “round bottom breakout” depends ultimately on actual market movements. Time will be the best validator.