What is Indonesia's Trade Surplus and Why It Matters for 2026

A trade surplus occurs when a country exports more goods than it imports, creating a positive trade balance. For Indonesia, this surplus has been a crucial economic indicator, but according to recent analysis from UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen, the sustainability of Indonesia’s trade surplus now faces mounting headwinds. The combination of decelerating economic growth, intensifying trade tensions, and fading demand from key markets presents significant challenges for Asia’s largest economy in 2026.

Understanding the Pressure on Indonesia’s Trade Surplus

Indonesia’s trade surplus—the crucial difference between its export revenues and import expenses—is experiencing structural pressures. The economists highlight that strong demand observed in 2025 is expected to progressively weaken as 2026 unfolds. This demand depletion, coupled with global trade frictions and rising protectionism, threatens the export-driven surplus that has supported Indonesia’s economic resilience. The complexity deepens when considering that while bilateral agreements like the Comprehensive Economic Partnership with the European Union provide some market diversification, they offer only partial relief to broader structural challenges.

The Forecast: A Contracting Trade Surplus

UOB’s analysis presents a sobering outlook for Indonesia’s trade surplus in coming months. The bank forecasts a notable contraction from $41 billion in 2025 to approximately $35 billion in 2026. This $6 billion decline reflects multiple dynamics: export growth is decelerating amid weaker global demand, while imports of capital goods and intermediate products remain resilient. The narrowing trade surplus underscores a critical transition period where Indonesia’s economy must adapt to slower external demand.

Building Resilience: Beyond Trade Agreements

Sustaining Indonesia’s trade surplus requires more than cosmetic trade partnerships. Economists emphasize that deeper downstream industrialization and value-added production are essential. By developing more sophisticated manufacturing capabilities, Indonesia can enhance export competitiveness and reduce import dependency on capital goods. Strategic industrial policy, coupled with continued trade diversification, offers the most viable pathway to stabilize the trade surplus outlook beyond 2026.