Huatai Securities: Under the new standard for electric meters, the industry is expected to achieve both volume and price growth by 2026

Huatai Securities Research Report states that on February 6, the State Grid’s 2026 marketing project measurement equipment special (the third batch of electricity meters with failed bids in 2025) was publicly tendered and listed for procurement. The price was explicitly limited, with a month-on-month increase of over 20% compared to the second batch in 2025, marking a halt in decline and a rebound. Under the new standard for electricity meters, the industry is expected to achieve both volume and price growth in 2026, driving a recovery in corporate profitability. Leading companies with technological advantages are likely to gain higher market share in the early stages of implementing the new standards.

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Huatai | Power & New Energy: Price Rebound in Re-tendered New Standard Electricity Meters

Key Points

On February 6, the State Grid’s 2026 marketing project measurement equipment special (the third batch of electricity meters with failed bids in 2025) was publicly tendered and listed for procurement. The price was explicitly limited, with a general increase of over 20% compared to the second batch in 2025, marking a halt in decline and a rebound. We are optimistic that under the new standard for electricity meters, the industry in 2026 will see both volume and price growth, supporting a recovery in corporate profitability. Leading companies with technological advantages are expected to secure higher market shares early in the rollout of the new standards.

Price of new standard electricity meters has stopped falling and is expected to rebound, with bid prices in the re-tendering batch potentially increasing by over 20%

In the third batch of 2025, electricity meters were fully procured under the new standard for the first time. However, due to generally high bid prices, the bids ultimately failed, with opening prices for A/B/C/D-grade and high-end smart meters at 213/505/428/611/3579 yuan respectively, representing increases of 55%/46%/37%/111%/53% compared to the second batch in 2025. The re-tendering set price limits for different parameter standards: typical limits for A/B/C/D-grade and high-end smart meters are 170/435/380/570/3900 yuan. These limits generally represent a 20%+ increase over the second batch in 2025, indicating a rebound after previous declines.

Changes in Price Scoring Standards May Lead to Continued Price Competition

This re-tendering involved changes to the scoring criteria for some electricity meters. The bid price range used for baseline price calculation was adjusted from [-10%, +5%] in the previous bid to [-15%, +5%] in the second batch of 2025, increasing the impact of very low bids on the effective average price, which may cause the average price to decrease. The floating coefficient C range was adjusted from -0.5%~0.5% to -1%~0.25%, increasing the likelihood of negative coefficients. The penalty for bids exceeding the baseline price by 1% increased from 1 point to 1.5 points, while bids below by 1% decreased from 0.3 to 0.1 points, widening the score gap for prices above and below the baseline from 0.7 to 1.4 points. Overall, owners remain focused on procurement costs, and price competition among manufacturers may continue.

New Standards and Re-tendering Demand Suggest Overall High Demand in 2026

Reviewing the first to third batches of measurement equipment procurement in 2025, a total of 66.47 million electricity meters (including A/B/C/D-grade and high-end smart meters) were tendered. The third batch of 16.96 million meters failed, and the actual tendered volume for the year was 49.52 million, which is relatively low (based on an 8-10 year replacement cycle for electricity meters, corresponding to high demand in 2015). We believe that 1) as standardized products, actual tendered volumes in 2025 were low, creating strong replenishment needs in 2026; 2) historically, after new standards are introduced, the first batch often involves small-scale trial procurement, but annual demand tends to grow rapidly with the rollout of new standards. Therefore, we expect overall demand in 2026 to remain high.

Optimism for Volume and Price Growth Under the New Standard

We expect the price of the re-tendered new standard electricity meters in this batch to rebound over 20% compared to the second batch in 2025. With the new standard meters beginning to be procured at scale, overall demand in 2026 is likely to be high. Leading companies with technological advantages are expected to gain higher market shares early in the implementation of the new standards.

Risk Warning: Grid investment falling short of expectations, increased industry competition.

(Source: People’s Financial News)