Why the next decade could belong to Bitcoin: beyond the bubble trap

Recently, at a major event in New York, influential voices in the financial market defended a controversial thesis: Bitcoin is not a bubble doomed to collapse but a fundamental asset for the next decade. This narrative challenges the bubble weapon that critics repeatedly use against crypto assets. To understand why these experts are convinced, it’s necessary to examine the data and logic behind their statements.

The Bubble Question: Why the Numbers Contradict the Theory

Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, posed the question directly: there can be no bubble when the average institutional investor owns zero cryptocurrencies. This simple observation destroys one of the main arguments against Bitcoin. By definition, a bubble occurs when an asset is massively overvalued and widely distributed among investors. When institutional penetration is virtually nonexistent, the opposite scenario is in play.

What makes this realization so relevant is that the largest fund managers, investment banks, and sovereign funds are still on the cusp of this transformation. Although Bitcoin index funds have started to emerge and regulation is becoming increasingly clear, the vast majority of large institutions hold no significant exposure to cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the bubble weapon doesn’t fire when those who should “burst” the price haven’t even entered the game.

When Fiat Money Loses Its Value: Bitcoin’s Proposition

Morehead’s argument goes beyond the numbers. He addresses a fundamental problem: the currency we carry every day loses about 3% of its value annually. This is because it has no backing or supply limit. A government can print more money whenever it wants, diluting the purchasing power of holders.

Consider the impact over a lifetime: in 30 years, you lose approximately 60% of what you can buy with that money. In 40 years, 70%. This is a silent transfer of wealth. Assets with a fixed supply, like Bitcoin, which has only 21 million units to be created, represent the antithesis of this model. There’s no expansionary monetary policy, no surprises. Scarcity is mathematical.

The Lack of Institutional Capital Is the Real Opportunity

If sovereign funds, big banks, and pension funds represent trillions of dollars in capital, and virtually none of them have allocated significantly to Bitcoin, we are in a situation analogous to the early days of the internet. The scenario isn’t an already inflated bubble but initial adoption with enormous room for growth.

Historically, when large amounts of institutional capital enter an asset, prices rise. But the opposite is also true: when that capital hasn’t yet entered, there’s no basis to claim the asset is at unsustainable levels. The absence is the strongest signal that we’re not in a bubble but in a transition phase.

Ethereum and the Evolution Beyond Traditional Cycles

Tom Lee, another influential market analyst, offers a different perspective on the evolution of the crypto ecosystem. He questions the four-year cycle theory that analysts used to predict corrections. Recent reality has shown that things have changed: in October 2025, there was a significant correction, but unlike the collapse of November 2022, Ethereum maintained its strength and continued rising.

This suggests a maturing market. The simplistic extrapolation of past cycles may not repeat with the same intensity. Ethereum, in particular, has developed more robust use cases and deeper institutional adoption, changing its fundamental dynamics. What was pure speculation in 2017 or 2018 has become infrastructure by 2025 and 2026.

How Crypto Is Already Embedded in Our Daily Lives

A critical observation by Lee is often overlooked: crypto is becoming invisible. You already use stablecoins for payments without realizing it. Neobanks operate on blockchain in their backend. Assets are traded 24/7, including overnight. Cryptography and decentralization no longer mean you’re doing something exotic or risky.

Eventually, people will use cryptocurrencies without knowing they’re using cryptocurrencies. The technology integrates into daily life like the internet or electricity: essential but invisible. When this transition happens en masse, the asset supporting it isn’t in a bubble—it’s transitioning into a basic commodity.

Bitcoin as a Shield Against the Weaponization of the Dollar

Morehead raised an argument that goes beyond retail: the geopolitics of Bitcoin. When the U.S. Treasury Secretary can, with the signing of a document, freeze or confiscate dollar-denominated resources, other countries—especially those in conflict with Washington—begin to seek alternatives. The dollar has become a tool of foreign policy.

In this context, Bitcoin represents something unprecedented: an asset that no government can control unilaterally, that doesn’t rely on infrastructure of any nation, and that has global liquidity. For countries seeking to protect themselves from dependence on the U.S. dollar, holding Bitcoin in reserves is a geopolitical insurance. The next decade may see strategic moves in this direction.

The Long-Term Verdict

Short-term volatility will continue to be a reality. But when serious analysts dismiss the bubble weapon narrative with concrete data, when institutional penetration is zero, when use cases diversify, and when geopolitical incentives emerge, the outlook for the next decade isn’t one of speculation doomed to collapse. It’s one of progressive adoption, infrastructural transformation, and reconfiguration of stores of value. The long game belongs to those who understand this transition.