Elon Musk Leads the Way in Space Photovoltaics: When Will China's Industry Be Commercialized?

On February 13, the space photovoltaic concept stock Shuangliang Energy Saving (600481.SH) hit the daily limit down. The company had announced that it received orders related to the expansion project of the SpaceX Starship launch site the previous trading day, causing its stock price to surge and hit the limit up in the afternoon. However, that evening, the Shanghai Stock Exchange deemed the disclosure to be inaccurate, incomplete, and lacking sufficient risk warnings, issuing a regulatory warning.

Since the beginning of the year, a capital frenzy triggered by the “Musk Effect” has swept the market. In early January, Elon Musk stated at the Davos Forum that “the ultimate bottleneck for AI is electricity” and praised China’s large-scale photovoltaic industry. Within a month, the Wind Space Photovoltaic Index rose nearly 40%. However, after several companies issued clarifications, the A-share space photovoltaic index retreated, falling more than 8% from its peak.

Will Musk’s “space photovoltaic dream” become an opportunity for China’s photovoltaic industry to reshape its valuation? Can this external catalyst drive the industry out of its internal competition dilemma?

Several industry insiders believe that space photovoltaics are unlikely to achieve large-scale commercial deployment in the short term. Ground-based power stations will remain the main absorption source, and considering international political factors, it is unrealistic for Chinese photovoltaic companies to secure large US orders. However, as the global race shifts to space, China’s photovoltaic industry needs to strengthen cooperation with domestic commercial aerospace to support China’s space strategy. Currently, some domestic perovskite and satellite companies are conducting joint tests and plan to launch new application technologies for solar wings within the next two years.

“The Space Photovoltaic Dream Is Hard to Save ‘Near Fire’”

Musk regards space photovoltaics as a future main energy source to support AI computing power, and has repeatedly announced that Tesla and SpaceX will achieve 100 gigawatts of domestic photovoltaic capacity annually within three years. To reach this goal, Musk’s team visited multiple Chinese photovoltaic companies in early February, and Tesla’s official website recently posted a recruitment notice for senior solar engineers. These developments have sparked multiple rounds of gains in the A-share photovoltaic sector, with several leading stocks hitting the limit up.

Behind this capital frenzy lies the trillion-yuan market potential of space photovoltaics. Dongwu Securities predicts that if 10,000 satellites are launched annually worldwide, it will create a 200 billion yuan market for solar wings; CITIC Securities estimates that, based on Musk’s proposed deployment of 100 GW of solar and computing loads annually, the long-term space data center market could reach 5.6 trillion yuan.

Space photovoltaics are not a new concept. Narrowly, they refer to photovoltaic power systems carried on satellites and other in-orbit vehicles. Broadly, they include cutting-edge explorations of transmitting space solar energy back to Earth via microwave or laser wireless transmission.

“The core bottleneck limiting the scale of space photovoltaics in the past was high launch costs and limited launch capacity,” said Fu Qiang, Vice Partner and Chief Expert of the Energy Industry at Roland Berger, in an interview with First Finance. He noted that SpaceX’s launch volume has exploded exponentially—from 31 launches in 2021 to 167 planned for 2025—and that the application of reusable technology has significantly reduced launch costs, opening up feasibility for large-scale deployment of space photovoltaics. As China dominates over 70% of global photovoltaic capacity from materials to modules, Fu believes that the development of space photovoltaics will benefit domestic cutting-edge technologies like perovskite and heterojunction (HJT), and help Chinese PV companies achieve a second growth curve, with capacity revitalization through transformation.

However, industry experts generally remain cautious about the large-scale commercialization of space photovoltaics.

“Although sunlight conditions are more ideal in space, the more extreme environment and long-term radiation damage mean that space photovoltaics will have different operational logic from ground-based PV in terms of technology, engineering, operation, and system. It will take a long time to verify and explore how to truly drive the industry,” said Li Yao (pseudonym), head of business development at a PV module company. He emphasized that mass production will be a key step. Currently, most space photovoltaic solutions are small-batch customized, facing long certification cycles from aerospace clients and a lack of international testing standards. Establishing standardized supply chains and full-cycle quality control systems is urgent.

Sheng Wenting, Chairman of Perovskite company Shengkai New Energy, based on global deployment and satellite in-orbit data, estimates that even with an optimistic assumption of launching 10,000 satellites annually and each satellite’s solar wing area up to 20 square meters, the market size for space PV applications remains small and unlikely to ease the cyclical pressures on China’s PV industry in the next two years. From a technical validation perspective, she believes that large-scale commercial application on satellites requires stages of small-scale testing and real-environment testing, and full-process verification cannot be completed within one or two years.

How Chinese Companies Can Participate

Industry experts believe that the US space photovoltaic blueprint does not present a huge business opportunity for Chinese PV manufacturers. As the global race shifts to space, Chinese PV companies should leverage their early advantages in ground PV, collaborate with aerospace enterprises, and help China’s space photovoltaics seize opportunities.

Li Yao told First Finance that Musk’s goal is to build a domestic PV industry chain in the US to capture high-profit markets both on the ground and in space. Given the current international situation, Tesla and SpaceX are unlikely to directly purchase Chinese PV products; more likely, they will buy complete line equipment and talent. The window for cooperation is expected to be short, and domestic heterojunction and perovskite companies should be cautious of associated risks.

However, “Musk’s calls have indeed sparked serious global discussions on space photovoltaics.” According to Sheng Wenting, compared to the previous cautious attitude of ‘taking it slow,’ the industry is accelerating this year. “Although space photovoltaics are still in the early stages of large-scale industrialization, no one wants to miss the opportunity.” She revealed that a satellite company has already reached an agreement with her company to carry perovskite silicon tandem modules for small-scale space testing this year, with plans to replace part of the arsenic gallium solar wings on satellites next year and gradually promote mass application.

Launching PV into space is a microcosm of the global acceleration toward future integrated earth-space energy systems. As human civilization’s energy demands grow daily, capturing energy in space and converting it into electricity for transmission to ground or space terminals has become a key focus for many countries. China’s “Zhu Ri Plan” and the EU’s SOLARIS project both regard space photovoltaic stations as core directions. Under the “Ensure US Space Superiority” executive order issued by SpaceX late last year, efforts are being made to reduce rocket launch costs and provide economically feasible solutions for large-scale transportation of space station components.

Industry consensus is that in this space race, the next one or two years will see a surge of breakthrough technologies in the frontier of PV, with P-type ultra-thin HJT batteries and perovskite silicon tandem cells being key research directions, aiming to replace the currently costly arsenic gallium cells.

Considering overall conversion efficiency, cost, radiation resistance, and temperature adaptability, Sheng Wenting believes that P-type ultra-thin HJT batteries could be a short-term solution within the next one or two years, mainly driven by SpaceX. However, these batteries have lower efficiency and issues with yield rates in ultra-thin products. In the long term, perovskite tandem cells show greater potential. According to Chai Qimin, Director of Strategic Planning at the National Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation Center, perovskite tandem cells have achieved efficiencies over 35% in labs, cost only a third to a quarter of arsenic gallium, and have excellent radiation resistance, making them a promising core technology for cost reduction and efficiency enhancement in future space photovoltaics.

“Chinese PV companies have three core advantages in the space PV track: full industry chain layout, cost competitiveness, and policy support,” said Fu Qiang. He pointed out that China’s PV industry not only accounts for over 70% of global capacity but also forms a full ecological chain with satellite aerospace and data center value chains. Therefore, Chinese PV companies should seize the opportunity, accelerate the integration of “PV + aerospace,” build industry ecosystems, participate in international standards setting, and promote globalization and innovation in space data center solutions.

(First Finance)