When whales close positions: the analysis behind Bitcoin's collapse from $84,000

As Bitcoin collapses from $84,000, there’s something few understand: the whales already saw it coming. Large cryptocurrency holders don’t react with surprise to drops like this; they anticipate them. In just a few hours, the market witnessed a purge where $1.6 billion in long positions simply vanished, leaving a trail of red accounts and a fear index not seen since the FTX collapse days. 💀

But before panicking, you need to understand what really happened: this wasn’t just a correction, but a cascade of liquidations that exposed how fragile the supports many relied on actually were.

The collapse of supports: what the whales saw coming

The $84,000 level was supposed to be inviolable. Many analysts considered it the final line of defense, a zone where institutional buyers should have stepped in. But that didn’t happen. When BTC broke below this critical zone and continued falling toward $81,000, it became clear that the big players had no intention of holding the price at that level.

What this revealed was even more important: the break wasn’t just of the 100-day moving average, but of a demand zone believed to be fundamental between $84,000 and $86,000. To grasp the magnitude of the move, over $750 million in liquidations were recorded in Bitcoin alone. The whales, observing from their positions, saw this coming exactly: an over-leveraged market that would sooner or later have to undergo a purge.

Cascading liquidations: how panic spread through the market

When the Fear and Greed Index hit 16, investor psychology collapsed. It’s no coincidence that during these moments of extreme panic, retail investors flee in a stampede while whales position themselves strategically. The market experiences what Timothy Peterson and other economists call “extreme risk aversion”: in these states, people simply don’t buy volatile assets when they feel the ground is slipping beneath their feet.

The dynamic is relentless: traders with leveraged positions are automatically liquidated, creating more selling pressure, which in turn liquidates more traders. The whales understand this cycle and take advantage of it. While retail traders see a catastrophic drop, whales see entry points at historically extreme levels.

Key levels where whales can reposition

This is where technical analysis becomes crucial. Major analysts are turning their attention to the 200-week moving average, which has historically served as a lifeline in the deepest bear markets. This level is currently around $58,000, representing a technical defense that whales are watching very closely.

But there are more levels at play. Some experts, like Keith Alan, suggest that without a catalyst of similar magnitude to a major geopolitical event, Bitcoin could slide down to $69,000 (the high reached in 2021) and even bottom out around $50,000 before the year ends. This scenario isn’t speculation: it reflects a pattern that closely resembles the 2021-2022 bear market, now worsened by this wave of risk aversion deeply embedded in market sentiment.

The whales’ calculation: waiting for the true bottom

What’s happening now is a purge moment where excessive leverage is taking its toll. The whales know that if the price doesn’t quickly recover the annual support levels, patience will be their best ally in the search for the true bottom of this cycle.

The deeper question is: are we at the start of a prolonged hibernation, or is this the extreme discount the market needed to cleanse itself before a significant rebound? The whales already have their answer. What has happened in these weeks will be remembered as the point where retail leverage was purged and the big operators repositioned their chips on the boards that matter.