Loss exceeds 23 billion, Meituan releases 2025 forecast! Continued losses in the first quarter of this year

Meituan Releases a Massive Loss Report!

On the evening of February 13, Meituan announced its earnings forecast on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, estimating a loss of approximately 23.3 billion to 24.3 billion yuan in 2025, and stated that the first quarter of this year will also continue to be unprofitable.

As of the close on February 13, Meituan-W’s stock price was HKD 82.15 per share, with a total market capitalization of about HKD 502.1 billion (approximately RMB 445.8 billion). Since the beginning of this year, Meituan-W’s stock price has fallen by 20.47%.

Meituan: Estimated Loss of 23.3 Billion to 24.3 Billion Yuan in 2025

On the evening of February 13, Meituan issued a profit warning on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, stating that the group expects to record a loss of about 23.3 billion to 24.3 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025 (2025 fiscal year), compared to a profit of approximately 35.808 billion yuan in the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 (2024 fiscal year).

Regarding the reasons for the expected loss in 2025, Meituan indicated that it is mainly due to the core local commerce segment shifting from an operating profit of about 52.415 billion yuan in 2024 to an operating loss of approximately 6.8 to 7 billion yuan in 2025, while the group has also further increased investment in overseas businesses.

Meituan also stated that to cope with the unprecedented fierce industry competition in 2025, the group has strategically increased investment across the entire ecosystem to strengthen core advantages and promote sustainable growth. These measures mainly include:

1. On the consumer side, strengthening marketing efforts, enhancing brand influence and price competitiveness, and continuously increasing user transaction activity and stickiness;

2. On the delivery side, increasing rider incentives and enriching rider benefits to ensure service quality and improve user experience;

3. On the merchant side, continuously investing resources to support merchants in improving operational efficiency, expanding consumer coverage, iterating business models, and achieving steady growth.

Meituan said that these initiatives have impacted the profitability of the core local commerce segment in 2025. Despite the ongoing competition and the expected continuation of losses into the first quarter of 2026, the group’s operations remain stable and normal as of the announcement date, and the group has sufficient cash to support steady business development.

Notably, on February 10, international rating agency Moody’s revised Meituan’s outlook from “Stable” to “Negative,” with the core concern being the recovery ability of its food delivery business amid fierce competition.

Recent Acquisition of Dingdong Maicai

Recently, Meituan’s acquisition of Dingdong Maicai’s China operations has garnered industry attention. On February 5, Meituan announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it would acquire 100% equity of Dingdong Maicai China for about USD 717 million (approximately RMB 4.98 billion). Its overseas operations will be divested before the deal is completed, and during the transition period, Dingdong Maicai will continue to operate under its original model. On that day, Dingdong Maicai’s pre-market valuation was USD 694 million (about RMB 4.817 billion).

Huayuan Securities analysts noted that as of September 2025, Dingdong operates over 1,000 front warehouses in China, with more than 7 million monthly purchasing users. Dingdong has top-tier supply chain capabilities, high direct sourcing rates from fresh produce origins, and a rich product matrix of private brands. This transaction aligns with Meituan’s long-term development plan in grocery retail and may help fully leverage both parties’ advantages in product strength, technology, and operations.

Kaiyuan Securities commented that this acquisition is expected to help Meituan address supply chain and East China warehouse network shortfalls, and to adopt Dingdong Maicai’s proven operational systems and capabilities; industry competition will further shift towards long-term competition in supply chain efficiency and product quality.

Some Institutions Favor Hang Seng Tech’s Growth Opportunities

Recently, the Hang Seng Tech Index, which includes Meituan, Alibaba, and other internet giants, has underperformed, declining 6.26% since February. However, overall, institutions are not pessimistic about the future of the Hang Seng Tech Index, with some believing that the current window is a rare “golden opportunity” for strategic deployment.

On February 9, China Merchants Securities published a research report titled “Six Reasons to Firmly Favor Hang Seng Tech at the Current Point.” They believe that the recent weakness in Hang Seng Tech is due to a sharp liquidity shock, but the fundamentals and bullish logic of the Hong Kong tech sector have not changed. From a liquidity perspective, the peak of overseas liquidity shocks has passed, and “buy the dip” remains an effective strategy; from valuation, the discount of Hong Kong tech stocks relative to A-shares is near historical highs, potentially signaling a bottom and rebound; from industry trends, the proliferation of large models indicates steady progress.

Guangda Securities’ overseas research team believes that Hang Seng Tech has entered a strategic allocation zone characterized by high win rates and high odds, with clear features of “oversold valuation, contrarian capital inflows, and upward fundamental trends.” This presents a rare “golden deployment window,” and investors are advised to increase positions gradually.

Dongwu Securities’ chief economist Lu Zhe believes that the trend of the Hang Seng Tech Index in February will likely be driven by three main factors: macroeconomic data, policy signals, and earnings verification. Overseas inflation and employment data will determine the Federal Reserve’s rate path expectations, which are key to Hong Kong tech valuation elasticity; domestic price and interest rate signals will provide insights into policy space and recovery slopes; and earnings season will shift the market focus from thematic drivers back to profitability and cash flow realization.

(Source: Securities Times)