Zhang Yaoxi: Data expectations pressure the dollar to stay weak, with gold prices remaining low and primarily bullish

Zhang Yaoxi: Data expectations suppress the dollar, keeping gold prices mainly low with a bullish outlook
On the previous trading day, Monday (February 9): International gold opened higher and then rebounded to close higher, driven by weekend geopolitical tensions and expectations of major data releases this week. The US dollar index initially declined, supporting gold prices to stay above the midline and breaking through the 10-day moving average resistance. However, further bullish momentum requires a sustained close in positive territory; otherwise, a pullback to the midline or the 30-day moving average support may occur. Still, this presents another opportunity to enter long positions.
In terms of specific movement, gold opened in Asia at $4,987.98 per ounce, initially declined to fill the gap, recording an intraday low of $4,964.04, then rebounded and fluctuated within a range. In the latter half of the US session, bulls regained strength, reaching an intraday high of $5,086.29 at the close, and ultimately ending at $5,058.07. The daily range was $122.25, closing up $70.09 from the open, a 1.41% increase.
Looking ahead to Tuesday (February 10): International gold briefly strengthened at the open before falling back, recovering some of Monday’s gains. This was partly due to US President Trump’s statement that negotiations with Canada on bilateral issues would begin immediately. White House officials clarified that President Trump explicitly does not support Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. This reduced safe-haven demand. Additionally, Trump set a 15% economic growth target, which helped the dollar strengthen early, putting downward pressure on gold, causing it to fall at the open.

However, the impact was limited; in the short term, these are just expectations without substantial basis, representing only short-term pressure. Today, focus will be on US December retail sales month-over-month, US November business inventories month-over-month, and other data. Market expectations are bullish for gold, so intraday trading will continue to favor buying on dips.
Furthermore, this week will see US January unemployment rate, US January non-farm payrolls (in ten-thousands), and US January unadjusted CPI year-over-year and month-over-month data. Based on last week’s published data and market expectations, the overall outlook is likely positive for gold. Therefore, trading this week will mainly favor a low-buying strategy. Even if the final results are bearish for gold, the market is expected to fluctuate mainly within a range, so maintaining a long bias is not problematic.
Fundamentally, bulls are showing signs of regaining strength. After previous corrections, the outlook for gold remains optimistic for new highs. This recent pullback appears to be a rapid re-pricing in a high-volatility environment rather than a trend reversal. Amid increased volatility across major global asset classes, funds frequently switch between risk assets and safe havens, causing gold to experience sharp rises and falls. The bullish trend remains intact.

Currently, the latest data shows job vacancies have fallen to 6.54 million, while weekly initial unemployment claims have risen to 231,000, indicating a cooling labor market. This change is significant—it not only suggests a higher likelihood of further inflation decline but also boosts market expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates within the year. If upcoming data like non-farm payrolls again meet expectations, it will further support the long-term bullish case for gold.
Therefore, during the Fed’s rate-cut cycle, gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, though short-term adjustments may occur due to geopolitical fluctuations and dollar strength driven by other central bank policies. Consequently, gold may either continue oscillating sideways for several weeks before rising again or extend last week’s rebound to new highs. Overall, the bull market trend remains ongoing.
Technically, on a monthly chart, gold in February continued the downward trend from January, sharply dropping after a false breakout of the initial upward trend. After testing support at the resistance turned support level from the early-year breakout, it rebounded, indicating that the bearish correction in January has run its course. The new bull phase remains valid, and the outlook is for further strength above this support level, or a consolidation before another rally. Key support is around $4,300; staying above this level maintains the bullish outlook for new highs. A close below would suggest the end of the bull market.

On the weekly chart, gold bottomed and rebounded last week, ending the previous top-reversal pattern, which was bearish. This also hints at a potential shift to a stronger phase, with the overall trend still upward. Support levels are the 5-week and 10-week moving averages, and buying on dips remains a valid strategy.
On the daily chart, recent rebounds have occurred after testing the upward trend channel support, with prices now above the channel and the middle Bollinger Band, indicating bullish dominance. The outlook remains for new highs, with support at short-term moving averages and the midline. These are good entry points for bullish positions.

Gold: support levels around $4,950 or $4,860; resistance levels near $5,110 or $5,190.
Silver: support levels around $80.30 or $79.00; resistance levels near $86.20 or $87.70.
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
A $1 fluctuation in international gold price roughly causes a $0.25 change in Gold TD (theoretically).

US futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × days to expiry / 365)
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The above views and analyses are solely the author’s personal opinions, for reference only, not trading advice. Operate at your own risk.
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