CryptoQuant: The "final" bottom of Bitcoin's bear market is around $55,000

Mars Finance reports that, according to The Block, on-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant states that the “final” bear market bottom for Bitcoin is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take several months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event. Analysis shows that Bitcoin’s realized price has historically served as a major support level during past bear markets, and the current price remains more than 25% above that level. Although Bitcoin dropped to $62,000, resulting in a single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion—the highest since March 2023—the structural bottom has not yet been reached. The total realized losses (measured in BTC) are still well below bear market bottom levels: currently 3 million BTC, compared to 11 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market. Several key valuation metrics also have not entered historically capitulative zones: the MVRV ratio has not reached extreme undervaluation; the NUPL indicator has not hit the historical cycle low of approximately 20% unrealized loss; long-term holders are currently breaking even or slightly profitable, whereas during past bear market bottoms they typically endured 30%-40% losses. About 55% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, while cycle lows usually occur at 45%-50%. CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator currently remains in the “bear market phase” rather than the “extreme bear market phase,” the latter of which historically lasts several months and signals that prices are beginning to bottom out.