US industry activity rebounded in January despite tariff pressures

Production in the USA has rebounded in the past month, breaking a year-long downward trend. Manufacturing activity has resumed growth due to a rise in new orders, although economic challenges remain a reality for the industry. According to Jin10 analyses, the increase in activity masks deep-seated issues related to trade policy and its impact on material costs and operational efficiency.

PMI rose to 52.6 – first signs of recovery

The ISM manufacturing PMI index reached 52.6 last month, marking a breakthrough for the sector. For the first time in twelve months, the index crossed the critical 50-point threshold, reaching its highest level since August 2022. This reading ends a ten-month streak of declines, signaling a possible turnaround in the production cycle.

An even more impressive increase was seen in the new orders index, which reached 57.1 points – a level not seen since February 2022. This indicates a significant rebound in buyer interest, a positive sign for production flow in the coming months.

Tariffs delay deliveries and increase costs

The supplier delivery index rose to 54.4, where a value above 50 indicates a systematic slowdown in delivery times. Extended order fulfillment times may be a symptom of both increased demand – typical of a strong economy – and supply chain disruptions directly linked to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Import tariffs have significantly raised raw material costs and disrupted operational schedules.

The index of wages paid increased from 58.5 in December to 59.0, indicating ongoing rising material prices. This trajectory suggests that inflationary pressures will persist in the near term, threatening the maintenance of real growth.

Contradiction: production rebound but employment decline

Despite improvements in PMI and orders, trade policy has not yet produced the expected stabilization in employment. The number of jobs in manufacturing fell by 68,000 in 2025, a stark contrast to the current activity revival. This phenomenon illustrates the complexity of the economic situation, where increased production does not automatically translate into higher employment, especially when companies fear long-term effects of trade policies.

Industrial activity is rebounding, but its trajectory remains uncertain, and the impact of tariff regulations on labor market stability keeps economic observers vigilant.