Industry Consensus Emerges: Top Analysts Point to $60K-$70K as Probable Bitcoin Bottom in 2026 Bear Market

As the cryptocurrency market extended its downtrend into February 2026, a clear consensus has crystallized among industry leaders on the nature and trajectory of the current correction. Rather than panic, top strategists are now mapping out specific price targets and timelines for potential recovery, with several high-profile analysts converging on a shared outlook for the bear market phase ahead.

The recent price action has been unambiguous: Bitcoin tumbled to $74,604 on February 2 before stabilizing around $68,890 by mid-month, while Ethereum fell below $2,200 and has since recovered to approximately $2,050. These moves have erased the euphoria that characterized the 2023-2025 bull run, but importantly, they lack the severity of past cycles.

Tom Lee’s Bearish Acknowledgment and Near-Term Support Levels

Tom Lee, one of Wall Street’s most closely-watched crypto strategists, recently admitted during a podcast that the market has entered a distinctly bearish phase with considerable short-term pressure. Rather than dismissing the downturn, Lee identified a potential consolidation zone around $2,400 for Ethereum—a level already breached as the correction accelerated. His willingness to acknowledge the bear market contrasts sharply with more bullish calls from 2025, signaling that even optimistic analysts now recognize the structural shift in market dynamics.

Lee’s framework suggests that current weakness is not merely a healthy pullback but a genuine bear market requiring patient positioning. This assessment carries particular weight given his track record in cryptocurrency market analysis, making it a key reference point for institutional investors reassessing their exposure.

Ki Young Ju’s Chain Data Warning: Algorithmic Selling and the Digestion Timeline

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has taken the analysis deeper by examining on-chain data patterns and exchange flows. According to Ju’s assessment, the prolonged selling pressure stems from an unexpected dynamic: major centralized exchanges (CEX) passively absorbed massive inventory positions during the market turbulence, possibly amounting to $10 billion in assets.

The crucial insight from Ki Young Ju’s framework is that these exchanges have been systematically offloading these holdings through algorithmic sales during US stock market hours, creating a persistent supply overhang that suppresses price recovery. This selling “digestion period,” Ju believes, should largely clear by late February 2026. Once this algorithmic liquidation pressure subsides, Bitcoin could experience a sharp rebound.

However, Ki Young Ju also cautioned that unless major holders like Michael Saylor execute large-scale liquidations, the market will likely avoid the catastrophic 70% corrections seen in previous cycles. Instead, expect a “broad range consolidation”—sideways movement within a defined band rather than a sharp V-shaped recovery or continued freefall.

The Bottom-Fishing Zone: $60,000 to $70,000 Consensus

Multiple market veterans have converged on a specific price range for potential accumulation. Benjamin Cowen from Into The Cryptoverse articulated perhaps the most detailed timeline: he expects Bitcoin to challenge its 200-week moving average (200WMA), which currently sits between $60,000 and $70,000. Cowen’s analysis suggests that this bear market phase will extend into 2026, with bear momentum persisting at least until mid-year, potentially dragging through summer or into Q3/Q4.

Critically, Cowen attributes the expected slowness of this bear market to the manner in which the 2025 bull market peaked. Rather than ending in euphoric excess, the market topped in a lukewarm state without extreme sentiment extremes. This structural difference means fewer forced liquidations and less panic selling—explaining why the current decline appears more gradual than the 70-80% crashes of previous cycles.

Qiao Wang has similarly positioned himself mentally for such scenarios, stating he would begin accumulating slowly if Bitcoin reaches the $60,000-$70,000 band, with plans to deploy capital aggressively if prices test $30,000-$40,000—though he considers the lower range less probable.

Alternative Perspectives: The Macro Tailwind for Bitcoin

Not all analysis points purely to bearish outcomes. Cathie Wood of ARK has hinted at Bitcoin’s eventual recovery potential, highlighting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and derivatives like Hyperliquid as effective diversification tools. Her reasoning stems from a 200-plus year correlation study: the Bitcoin-to-gold price correlation coefficient stands at just 0.14—essentially uncorrelated—and historically in Bitcoin’s prior two bull cycles, gold price movements actually preceded Bitcoin rallies.

This observation suggests that once macro conditions stabilize and inflation concerns ease, Bitcoin may benefit from portfolio rebalancing flows previously directed toward traditional safe havens like gold. Both gold and silver have weakened alongside crypto, with spot gold sliding below $4,500/ounce and silver below $74/ounce, indicating broad risk-off sentiment across alternative assets.

Strategic Takeaway: Patience Through the Digestion Phase

The convergence of views from Lee, Ki Young Ju, Cowen, and others points toward a coherent market narrative: the bear market is neither catastrophic nor over. The crypto industry should expect a prolonged consolidation phase through at least mid-2026, with potential accumulation zones forming around $60,000-$70,000 for Bitcoin and proportionally lower levels for altcoins.

Ki Young Ju’s timeline for the clearing of CEX-driven selling pressure by late February offers a near-term catalyst watch, while the broader 200WMA support zone identified by multiple analysts provides a structural floor for more aggressive entry strategies. Traders who rushed to bottom-fish after the initial decline—including Eugene Ng Ah Sio and Vida, who later hedged their positions on February 1—learned that patience may be the ultimate virtue in this phase.

The key insight: this bear market will be defined not by severity but by duration and the ability of long-term holders to accumulate at rational valuations during the extended digestion period ahead.