S&P upgrades Tajikistan's outlook to "Positive" due to strengthened external buffers

Investing.com – S&P Global Ratings upgraded Tajikistan’s outlook from “Stable” to “Positive” on Friday, while confirming its long-term and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at “B”.

This outlook revision reflects the possibility that Tajikistan’s future one- to two-year external balance performance may exceed expectations, mainly driven by resilient inflows of remittances from foreign workers and growth in international reserves.

Tajikistan’s external situation is expected to improve significantly in 2025, with income inflows—primarily from labor remittances—rising 47% year-over-year in the first nine months of this year. This supports the country’s sixth consecutive year of current account surplus, which is projected to reach about 14% of GDP in 2025.

Favorable gold prices have enabled the Tajikistan National Bank to increase international reserves to a record approximately $6.4 billion, equivalent to 36% of GDP. As a result, the economy has shifted to a moderate net creditor position for the first time.

The country reports strong real GDP growth of 8.4% in 2025, with per capita GDP rising to an estimated $1,650, up sharply from $890 in 2019. S&P expects economic growth to slow to about 5.5% in the coming years as remittance inflows decline.

Despite recent improvements, Tajikistan’s economy still faces various risks. Remittances accounted for 60% of GDP in the first nine months of 2025, highlighting reliance on labor markets in other countries, especially Russia.

The rating agency forecasts that Tajikistan’s overall net government debt will remain below 25% of GDP until 2029, which is considered moderate on a global scale. It is also expected that interest payments will average just over 1% of government revenue in the coming years.

S&P indicates that if Tajikistan’s external situation continues to strengthen, characterized by further accumulation of international reserves and improved coverage of public sector external debt, the rating could be upgraded.

Conversely, if external or fiscal performance significantly underperforms—particularly due to a sharp slowdown in remittance inflows or spillover from regional geopolitical risks—the outlook could be revised to stable or the rating could be downgraded.

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