JPMorgan Gold Price Forecasts Raised to $6,300 by 2026—Demand Pressures Supply

Major financial institution JPMorgan has significantly revised its gold price forecast, setting a target price of $6,300 per ounce by 2026. The expected increase from the current level of approximately $4,700 represents a 34% rise and has attracted market attention. The bank’s analysts indicate that, despite market fluctuations driven by the transition to a new Federal Reserve leadership, the medium-term upward trend in gold prices will continue.

Central Bank Continual Purchases and Investor Demand Drive Gold Price Forecasts

The upward revision of the gold price forecast is influenced by multiple market factors. Foremost among these is the ongoing demand for gold purchases by central banks worldwide. Active buying by institutional investors seeking to hedge against financial crises and diversify their portfolios has also increased, supporting steady demand for gold.

JPMorgan notes that this robust demand is causing structural changes in the gold market. Particularly, in an environment of rising financial asset uncertainty, the role of gold as a portfolio hedge becomes even more significant.

Gold Price Forecast Under Supply Constraints—Reforming Market Equilibrium

While demand has strengthened, the supply side of gold remains relatively inelastic. New mine development requires long-term investments and permitting processes, making short-term supply adjustments difficult. JPMorgan emphasizes that the interaction of these supply constraints with resilient demand is pushing gold prices toward a new market equilibrium.

In other words, the fundamental mechanism at work is demand-driven price increases to compensate for supply shortages, which underpins the upward revision of the gold price forecast.

The Value of Gold as a Safe Asset Remains Unchanged Despite Monetary Policy Changes

Even amid shifts in monetary policy, JPMorgan asserts that the intrinsic value of gold remains unchanged. As long as inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties persist, gold will continue to serve as an effective safe asset and portfolio hedge.

Meanwhile, the bank maintains a more cautious outlook on the short-term prospects for silver. Unlike the upward revision in gold forecasts, the supply and demand balance in the silver market is influenced by more complex factors.