It’s Friday, February 13, 2026, and while some people are worried about "bad luck," crypto traders are worried about something else entirely: The January CPI Report.

Because of the recent government shutdown, this report was delayed—but it’s finally here. If you’re seeing the hashtag #CPIWatch trending, here is the simple breakdown of why this "boring" government data is actually a huge deal for your $BTC
(CPI) is basically a giant receipt for the U.S. economy. It tells us if the cost of living is going up or down.
The Federal Reserve wants inflation at 2.0%.
The Forecast: Experts expect today's number to be 2.5% (a slight drop from last month’s 2.7%).
The Core: "Core" inflation (which ignores volatile things like food and gas) is also expected to sit around 2.5%.
Why the "Jobs Blowout" Makes This Tricky
Remember that huge jobs report (NFP) we saw earlier this week? The U.S. added 130,000 jobs—nearly double what was expected.
Usually, a strong job market means people have more money to spend. If they spend more, prices stay high.
The Result: This makes it harder for the Fed to justify cutting interest rates. If today's CPI comes in "hot" (higher than 2.5%), we might have to wait even longer for those interest rate cuts we all want.
There is also a lot of drama behind the scenes. President Trump has been vocal about wanting lower interest rates now. He has even nominated Kevin Warsh to take over as Fed Chair when Jerome Powell's term ends in May.
Powell has stayed firm, insisting that he won't cut rates just because the White House asks—he needs to see the inflation data hit that 2% target first. This "battle for independence" is making the markets extra jumpy!
💡 What This Means for Crypto:
The market is currently "pricing in" a steady report.
If CPI is 2.3% or lower: Expect a "Green Wall." This would signal that the 2% goal is close, and a rate cut is coming. $BTC could fly back toward $75k.
If CPI is 2.7% or higher: Expect a "Flash Dip." This would mean inflation is "sticky," and the Fed might keep rates high for a long time. #CPIDataAhead