ETH's life-and-death fight in the cage: From 3034 to 3000, is it a breakthrough or a trap?

Ethereum’s recent attempt to surge to 3034.99 triggered intense market discussion. Some loudly proclaimed “breakthrough,” “gone into the wild,” “bull market return,” but little do they realize this may just be a carefully crafted trap. Currently, ETH price has adjusted to around $1950. What does that high spike really signify? The answer may be hidden in that long upper shadow—one word: “cage.”

Surface Breakthrough, Hidden Cage Game

From 2900 to 3000, then attempting to break through 3034, the market has been experiencing iterations of the “cage.” Every seemingly breakout is actually moving from a small cage into a slightly larger one. At 3034.99, countless retail traders thought they were “free,” but little did they know the big players were already waiting on the cage bars.

That long upper shadow is the cage’s bar. What does it tell us? Hit it, bleed, then pull back. This isn’t a real breakout; it’s a test. When the test is pushed back, what does that mean? Heavy selling pressure, no major funds stepping in to absorb. Volume hasn’t kept up; it’s mostly retail enthusiasm. Such pulse-like rises are mostly the main players’ “grab-and-go” tactics.

The big players are just pushing your expectations from 2900 to 3000, then trying to see if they can push you to 3050 or even 3065. Every step resembles that well-dressed person taking the ball from the court—saying “I thought no one wanted it,” but really just driven by greed. Their goal is to use that upper shadow to trap the liquidity of chasing retail traders—another form of “theft,” more covert and professional.

How Big Players Use Long Shadows to Set Psychological Traps

On the technical side, the true top of this big cage is between 3045 and 3065. But judging from the fact that 3034.99 was pushed back, the market hasn’t reached consensus yet. If it can’t even break 3035, it indicates insufficient bullish enthusiasm and persistent bearish pressure.

This is the beauty of the cage: it’s not an absolute technical level but a psychological one. When most believe “3050 is the top,” the big players start distributing at 3035. Retailers see a long shadow, eyes only on “advance” and “breakthrough,” but fail to see the big funds quietly exiting behind that line.

Insufficient volume, pulse-like rises, long shadows—these three signals together often indicate a “false breakout.” The big players make you see hope (reach 3034.99), then cut you off at the moment you’re chasing high (quick decline), leaving you trapped in a “hopeful cage.”

Retail Traders Trapped: From Greed to FOMO Loop

Every such test involves a large number of retail traders repeating the same mistake: mistaking chasing high for investing, and breakout attempts for genuine breakthroughs. They’re like the person holding the ball, thinking they’re not gambling, just “picking up bargains.” The result? Either the ball gets taken back, losing face; or their money gets trapped, mental state collapsing.

The root problem is a lack of understanding of what the “cage” really means. Progress isn’t total freedom but moving from one small cage into a slightly larger one. 2900 to 3000 is a cage, 3000 to 3050 still a cage, 3050 to 4000 remains a cage. The key isn’t which price you break through but whether you truly understand the market’s logic.

The big players’ logic is simple: use a long upper shadow to test market absorption. If there’s insufficient support, they continue distributing. Every chased high that gets cut off unknowingly provides liquidity for the big players’ “cage.”

History Repeats: Why the Cage Keeps Repeating

Looking back at Ethereum’s historical rises and falls, this pattern isn’t rare. High points show long shadows, retail chasing high gets trapped, then the market consolidates and tests again—cycle repeats. 3034.99 isn’t the first test, nor will it be the last. When the next test comes, will it be at 3050? Or 3065? Or even higher?

This is why experienced traders “wait at the cage door” instead of rushing out. They know the breakout is fake; they’re waiting for the moment when the cage door truly opens—and that usually requires genuine volume follow-through and a thorough shift in market sentiment.

Stay Calm and Let the Bullet Fly

In the face of such a situation, the best strategy is patience. Since we know we’re fighting inside a cage, don’t dream of venturing into the wild. Days like Wednesday are best for calming the mind rather than following the crowd.

If you must participate, do so at key points within the cage: short in the 3050-3060 zone, with a stop loss at 3085 (evidence of breaking the cage top), targeting a pullback to 3008-2977 (support inside the cage). But only if you truly understand: this isn’t a high-altitude battle but a crouch inside the cage, waiting for that long upper shadow to appear again.

Stay quiet, don’t bark through the cage. Before the market shows new signals, the best way to profit is often just to wait.