Final wave of growth: focus on the main instruments before a reversal

The beginning of the month brought quite a few surprises to the cryptocurrency market. After updating my analysis of the market situation, I see the formation of a potential reversal pattern that should be considered from the perspective of the last long scenario. However, this could be the final wave of recovery before a more serious downward move, so proper capital management and instrument selection become critically important.

Why It’s Dangerous to Scatter Capital Across Altcoins Now

After a rebound from $80,000 to $97,000, the market entered a complex correction phase characterized by an ABCDE formation. Then, the first impulsive recovery move appeared, directed toward the 1.414–1.618 zone on the Fibonacci grid, where active buying was observed.

In such conditions, many traders feel tempted to distribute capital across multiple alternative instruments, hoping for volatility. This is a classic mistake. At this stage, when we may be facing a final bounce before a crash, focusing on core assets—BTC, ETH, and SOL—is much more sensible than chasing risky alt positions.

Technical Signals and Conditions for a Reversal

Several factors simultaneously support the reversal hypothesis:

• Strong bullish divergence on higher timeframes
• Negative informational background creating panic
• Capitulation sentiment on social media
• Mass selling driven by low emotions

In such conditions, the market often makes its last surge, liquidating stop-losses of newcomers and accumulating liquidity before a fall. The current scenario is built precisely on this logic—the reversal pattern gives a clear signal to go long, but with a firm understanding of the temporary nature of this recovery.

Note the current data for key instruments:

• BTC: $65,930 (-2.39% over 24h)
• ETH: $1,930 (-0.98% over 24h)
• SOL: $77.69 (-2.66% over 24h)

Timeframes and Target Levels for Profit Taking

Based on technical analysis, the recovery should conclude approximately between February 15–19 within the $88,000–$92,000 range. This zone becomes critical for two purposes:

• Profit-taking on open long positions
• Opening short scenarios for the next downward phase

Divergence remains the main confirming signal—pay close attention, as it often precedes a reversal by several days.

Capital Management: Why Alt Instruments Should Be Excluded

If you actively trade the main assets—BTC, ETH, and SOL—you can risk up to 5–7% per trade. But this applies only to concentrated positions in top assets.

Key point: forget about spreading your capital across alternative instruments during this period. Many small alt projects are extremely vulnerable to market panic and often fall much harder. Instead, focus all your energy on BTC, ETH, and SOL, using a clear, tested entry and exit plan.

After the Recovery — Switch to Local Trading

Once this wave of recovery completes, plan to fully exit positions and switch to trading only local movements—this applies to both spot positions and medium-term swing trades. Alternative instruments will only be considered after market stabilization and new trend signals appear.

Final Plan: Cold Head Instead of Greed

This is not about trying to maximize profits at any cost—it’s a strategy based on cold analysis and a well-thought-out plan. Divergence, formation patterns, timing markers, and crowd psychology all indicate that the market is giving us a last chance for profit before a deeper correction.

Remember: in current conditions, capital protection is more important than multiplication. Don’t succumb to the temptation to spread funds across many alt instruments in hopes of quick gains. Focus on the main assets, maintain discipline, and follow your plan precisely. The market rewards those who stay calm.