Analysis of Vincentius Ming Shen: Can Indonesia's trade surplus maintain its position?

UOB Economists Enrico Tanuwijaja and Vincentius Ming Shen discuss increasing challenges for Indonesia’s trade balance. Against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth and rising protectionism, the prospects for a surplus are under serious threat. According to their assessment, the excess demand from previous years is gradually diminishing, which could lead to a significant correction in the figures.

Declining demand and trade conflicts as main risks

UOB’s research points to two key instability factors. First, the expenditures that accelerated and were exhausted in 2025 will gradually normalize in the coming months. Second, current trade tensions among global players are creating uncertainty regarding Indonesia’s positioning as an exporter. Ming Shen emphasizes that these processes are interconnected and have a synergistic negative effect.

Specific figures and UOB forecasts

According to analysts, Indonesia’s trade surplus will decrease from $41 billion in 2025 to approximately $35 billion this year. The reasons are twofold: export volumes are slowing down due to lower external demand, while imports of capital and technological goods remain steady, squeezing the surplus.

The role of economic partnerships in maintaining competitiveness

According to Jin10 data, the comprehensive economic partnership agreement signed with the European Union provides some buffer against trade risks. However, UOB experts highlight that this is not enough. To maintain Indonesia’s position, more ambitious trade agreements and deeper industrial integration with major partners are necessary. That is why Vincentius Ming Shen emphasizes the importance of diversifying trade channels and strengthening the structural competitiveness of the archipelago in the medium term.