📒 Trading Notes | Market Rhythm Summary

1. BTC Major Trend
• Still in a bear market structure
• Monthly MA20 broken downward
• Bearish structure confirmed
• Four-year cycle perspective still valid

👉 Rebound ≠ Reversal

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2. Structural Analysis

First Wave

107500 → 80000
Rebound to 98000
Complete first downward structure

Second Wave (Current)

60000 → 72000
Pullback to 70000 sideways consolidation

👉 Belongs to a rebound phase within a downtrend

Forecast:
After the rebound completes,
a third wave of decline may begin within 1–2 months

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3. Short-term Strategy

Range: 65000–75000

Operational Ideas:
• Break below 69000 → Short sell accordingly
• Targets 67000 / 65000
• Set stop-loss at entry
• Reversal to long if price rebounds to 70000

Core Logic:
Main players create fake breakdowns
Use sentiment to induce short positions
Then rebound to harvest

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4. Gold / Silver

Gold

Post-crash recovery phase
Short-term resistance: 5100–5200
No new high structure visible

Silver

Linked to gold
Resistance zone: 85–88
No independent trend

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5. Altcoins

HYPE:
Bottom rebound approaching double
Decreasing value-for-money
Not recommended to chase highs

Watch for linked movements:
ASTER / AVNT

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6. Trading Principles

✔ Trade within ranges in a bear market
✔ Do not chase rebound peaks
✔ Avoid heavy positions betting on direction
✔ Use rebounds as opportunities to reduce positions
✔ Control leverage

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📌 Summary in one sentence:

The biggest trap in a bear market
is believing that the bull market has returned.