Assessing UniCredit (BIT:UCG) Valuation After Strong Multi Year Shareholder Returns

Simply Wall St

Tue, February 10, 2026 at 11:13 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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UNCFF

-1.53%

UNCRY

+6.84%

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Recent performance snapshot

Without a single defining news event setting the tone, UniCredit (BIT:UCG) has still drawn attention through its recent share performance and reported results. This has prompted investors to revisit what is currently driving sentiment around the stock.

See our latest analysis for UniCredit.

UniCredit’s recent 6.36% 1 day share price return, on top of a 30 day share price return of 11.21% and a very large 5 year total shareholder return, points to momentum that has been building rather than fading.

If UniCredit’s run has you thinking about what else is moving, this could be a good moment to scan our screener of 102 top founder-led companies and see what stands out next.

With a very large multi year shareholder return, a value score of 4 and an estimated 21% intrinsic discount, the key question now is whether UniCredit still offers an entry point or if the market is already pricing in growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 70% Overvalued

UniCredit last closed at €78.64, while the most followed narrative on the stock, according to Menalbi, places fair value at €78.13 using a long term framework.

We firmly believe that UniCredit (UCG) has significant long-term appreciation potential, with a clear path to reaching €78.13 per share within a 10-year horizon. This thesis is supported by a combination of factors, including the current undervaluation of the stock, the ongoing strategic transformation, the focus on efficiency and digitization, the potential for growth in new markets, and the increasing capacity for cash generation.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue trajectory, profit margins and future earnings multiple sit behind that €78.13 figure, and how a single DCF narrative ties it all together over a decade?

Result: Fair Value of €78.13 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative could be challenged if UniCredit’s €24,846.0 revenue and €10,470.0 net income come under pressure, or if sentiment shifts around its 43.284% profit margin.

Find out about the key risks to this UniCredit narrative.

Another view on UniCredit’s price

The narrative suggests that UniCredit is 70% overvalued at €78.64 compared with a €78.13 fair value, but our DCF model tells a different story. On that basis, UniCredit is trading 21.5% below an estimated €100.15 future cash flow value. This raises an obvious question: which lens matters more for you?

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Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

UCG Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Build Your Own UniCredit Narrative

If you feel this view does not quite fit your own take, you can stress test the same data, shape your assumptions and Do it your way in just a few minutes.

A great starting point for your UniCredit research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If UniCredit is already on your radar, do not stop there. Cast a wider net with a few targeted stock ideas that might fit your style.

Spot potential value opportunities by checking out our list of 231 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect them.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include UCG.MI.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email [email protected]_

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