Zhang Yaoxi: Gold prices bottom out and rebound as buying support, with a bullish outlook expecting new highs in the future

Zhang Yaoxi: Gold Price Rebounds from the Bottom with Buying Support, Market Outlook Still Expecting New Highs
Last week in the gold market: International gold prices deeply bottomed out and rebounded, forming a long lower shadow line. Compared to the previous week’s plunge and inverted hammer pattern, there are opposite expectations, which also suggest that the previous week’s bearish decline may be exhausted, indicating a potential shift to bullish sentiment. Therefore, the current market trend is either to maintain a sustained oscillation and correction or to strengthen again and reach new highs. At this moment, patience is more important than trading.
Regarding the specific trend: Gold opened the week at $4,792.00 per ounce, initially plunging to the weekly low of $4,402.14, then rebounding to show signs of stabilization and a potential bullish reversal. However, after reaching the weekly high of $5,091.81 on Wednesday, it failed to break through resistance, leading to profit-taking by longs, causing a decline on Thursday. On Friday, it fell back near the opening price but ultimately rebounded again with buying support, ending the week at $4,960.86. The weekly range was $689.67, with a close 95.75 dollars higher than the previous week’s close of $4,865.11, a 1.97% increase.
In terms of influence: The previous week’s plunge was driven by selling pressure, geopolitical easing, and the signing of tariff agreements. However, geopolitical tensions eased again, and Federal Reserve Board member Mester indicated that rate cuts this year might need to be slightly more than one percentage point, strengthening the fundamentals and supporting a rebound in gold prices.
Later, profit-taking, geopolitical tensions reversing again, and the CME raising margin requirements for gold and silver futures, along with Argentina announcing a trade agreement with the Trump administration, caused gold prices to face resistance and decline again.
But ultimately, supported by buying support and the ignition of rate cut expectations fueled by ADP data, initial jobless claims, and the US February one-year inflation forecast, gold prices rebounded once more.
Looking ahead to Monday (February 9): International gold prices are expected to open higher due to weekend escalations in Russia-Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions. However, the US dollar index opened weak and then strengthened, coupled with the resistance from last week’s rebound moving averages, limiting bullish momentum. The market needs to break and hold above this resistance to strengthen the bullish outlook; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate sideways. Nonetheless, since gold remains above the middle band and the 30-day moving average, the outlook remains bullish, and oscillation remains an opportunity for long entries.
Additionally, this week will see US December retail sales month-over-month, US January unemployment rate, US January non-farm payrolls (in ten thousand), and US January unadjusted CPI year-over-year and month-over-month data. Based on last week’s data and market expectations, these are likely to be overall positive for gold, so the main trading strategy remains to buy low and look for gains. Even if the final results are negative for gold, the market will likely remain volatile, so long positions are still favored.
Fundamentally, although the bulls have not yet shown a clear resurgence, the outlook remains optimistic for new highs. This correction is not a trend reversal but rather a rapid repricing in a high-volatility environment. Amid increased volatility across major global assets, funds frequently switch between risk assets and safe havens, causing gold to experience sharp rises and falls. The bull market outlook remains strong.
Currently, the latest data shows job vacancies have fallen to 6.54 million, while weekly initial unemployment claims have risen to 231,000, indicating a cooling labor market. This change is significant—it not only suggests a higher likelihood of further inflation decline but also boosts market expectations for the Fed to start rate cuts within the year, providing medium- to long-term support.
Therefore, during the Fed’s rate-cut cycle, gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, though short-term adjustments may occur due to geopolitical fluctuations and dollar strength caused by other central bank policies. The market may either continue oscillating sideways for several weeks before rising again or directly extend last week’s rebound to reach new highs.
On the technical side, at the monthly level: Although gold dipped again in February, it found support after touching the resistance from the January breakout of the upward trend, then rebounded, indicating that the new bull phase remains valid. The price is expected to stay above this trend support and either strengthen further or oscillate before rising again. Key support is around $4,300; staying above this level maintains the bullish outlook for new highs. Falling below would suggest the end of the bull market.
At the weekly level: Last week’s rebound and close suggest that the previous top-out pattern is exhausted, implying a potential shift to renewed strength. The overall trend remains upward, with support at the 5- and 10-week moving averages, making dips suitable for buying.
On the daily chart: Gold has stabilized after a rebound but has not yet convincingly broken above the 10-day moving average resistance. The technical indicators still show a bearish signal, suggesting a possible decline below current levels. However, multiple moving averages support the downside, and the price remains above the 30-day and middle band, with Bollinger Bands still pointing upward. Although the breakout above resistance is not yet confirmed, the probability favors a rebound, so low-buying remains the strategy.
Gold: Support levels at $4,910 or around $4,800; resistance levels at $5,100 or around $5,190.
Silver: Support at $77.700 or around $74.70; resistance at $83.10 or around $86.10.
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
A $1 fluctuation in international gold prices roughly causes a $0.25 change in Gold TD (theoretically).
US futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × futures days to expiry / 365)
Follow me to make your gold trading ideas clearer!

Reviewing historical causes and effects, interpreting the current environment, and projecting future trends—adopting bold predictions with cautious trading principles. – Zhang Yaoxi
The above opinions and analyses are solely the author’s personal views, for reference only, and do not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
You decide your own money.