2.10 Review: SD=DS?

The combined market turnover reached 2.1 trillion yuan, continuing to shrink by over 140 billion yuan. After more than two weeks of successful market control by the Wang Wang team, the market has basically returned to normal in recent days. The index has moved back above the 5-day moving average, but trading volume before the holiday is hard to increase. It depends on whether institutional funds will step in early in the last two days, otherwise, the market is likely to remain volatile. [Taogu Bar]

In terms of themes, the strongest in the past two days is ByteDance’s Seedance, which launched yesterday and showed a strong upward trend this morning, with some slight differentiation in the afternoon. It belongs to a new branch of AI, similar to space photovoltaic development after aerospace. After a surge in new themes, we see that some leading stocks in the old cycle, such as Blue Focus and Lio, did not recover or rise, instead facing continuous selling pressure. In the afternoon, other old themes began small rotations, such as robotics. Therefore, the emergence of new themes has not completely eliminated old themes, so it cannot be considered a new cycle, nor should it be blindly compared to last year’s DeepSeek wave. Today, the two-board teams are mainly SD sector stocks. Tomorrow, we expect to face divergence and a淘汰赛 (elimination race). Early in the morning, the core stocks in the front row are still hard to buy; there’s no need to rush into early rebound plays. Wait for a divergence wave, and then see who can actively turn divergence into consensus in the afternoon before taking action.

In commercial aerospace, a new theme has appeared, and the old ones are basically abandoned. In the past two days, some funds have tried to restore rotation and flow back into this sector, but each rally has lacked strength, and lagging stocks are not following, with too many draggers. It is expected that they are waiting to see if the rocket launch tomorrow can be successfully recovered. If successful, another wave of recovery and flow back is possible. Meanwhile, it’s best to wait for the AI divergence window to close. Today, space photovoltaic experienced two consecutive divergences, with funds attempting to group around GCL-Poly at the end of the session. The battle between bulls and bears was quite exciting. Tomorrow, whether GCL-Poly recovers or continues to fall will determine the sector’s direction.

In chemicals, only one stock remains today—Baichuan, which hit a three-board. The previously grouped Hongbaoli broke below the 10-day moving average and did not recover by the end of the session. Looking at Baichuan convertible bonds intra-day, the stock itself may not have premium tomorrow. If Baichuan weakens as well, the chemical sector will continue to diverge tomorrow. Whether it can rotate back later depends mainly on the non-ferrous metals sector, as chemicals and non-ferrous metals tend to move in sync.

In big tech, represented by CPO, this sector is more sensitive to index and volume. Core stock Tianfutongtong today showed healthy divergence with reduced volume. Another branch, fiber optics, with Longfei Fiber leading the main rise, and Hangdian and Tiantong as supplementary gains, also showed honest divergence today. The future depends on whether institutions will rush in to repair.

The above views are personal notes for reference only and do not contain any investment advice.

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