Harley-Davidson’s (NYSE:HOG) Q4 CY2025 Sales Top Estimates But Stock Drops 11.3%

Harley-Davidson’s (NYSE:HOG) Q4 CY2025 Sales Top Estimates But Stock Drops 11.3%

Jabin Bastian

Tue, February 10, 2026 at 10:18 PM GMT+9 4 min read

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HOG

-1.71%

American motorcycle manufacturing company Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, but sales fell by 27.9% year on year to $496 million. Its GAAP loss of $2.44 per share was significantly below analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy Harley-Davidson? Find out in our full research report.

Harley-Davidson (HOG) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:

**Revenue:** $496 million vs analyst estimates of $479.8 million (27.9% year-on-year decline, 3.4% beat)

**EPS (GAAP):** -$2.44 vs analyst estimates of -$1.06 (significant miss)

**Operating Margin:** -72.8%, down from -28.1% in the same quarter last year

**Free Cash Flow Margin:** 20.2%, up from 11.2% in the same quarter last year

**Motorcycles Sold:** 13,500, down 500 year on year

**Market Capitalization:** $2.38 billion

Company Overview

Founded in 1903, Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is an American motorcycle manufacturer known for its heavyweight motorcycles designed for cruising on highways.

Revenue Growth

A company’s long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Any business can experience short-term success, but top-performing ones enjoy sustained growth for years. Unfortunately, Harley-Davidson’s 2% annualized revenue growth over the last five years was weak. This fell short of our benchmarks and is a tough starting point for our analysis.

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Revenue

Long-term growth is the most important, but within consumer discretionary, product cycles are short and revenue can be hit-driven due to rapidly changing trends and consumer preferences. Harley-Davidson’s performance shows it grew in the past but relinquished its gains over the last two years, as its revenue fell by 12.5% annually.

Harley-Davidson Year-On-Year Revenue Growth

We can dig further into the company’s revenue dynamics by analyzing its number of motorcycles sold, which reached 13,500 in the latest quarter. Over the last two years, Harley-Davidson’s motorcycles sold averaged 16.9% year-on-year declines. Because this number is lower than its revenue growth during the same period, we can see the company’s monetization has risen.

Harley-Davidson Motorcycles Sold

This quarter, Harley-Davidson’s revenue fell by 27.9% year on year to $496 million but beat Wall Street’s estimates by 3.4%.

Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to decline by 15.1% over the next 12 months, a slight deceleration versus the last two years. This projection doesn’t excite us and suggests its products and services will face some demand challenges.

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Operating Margin

Operating margin is an important measure of profitability as it shows the portion of revenue left after accounting for all core expenses – everything from the cost of goods sold to advertising and wages. It’s also useful for comparing profitability across companies with different levels of debt and tax rates because it excludes interest and taxes.

Harley-Davidson’s operating margin might fluctuated slightly over the last 12 months but has generally stayed the same, averaging 8.3% over the last two years. This profitability was inadequate for a consumer discretionary business and caused by its suboptimal cost structure.

Harley-Davidson Trailing 12-Month Operating Margin (GAAP)

This quarter, Harley-Davidson generated an operating margin profit margin of negative 72.8%, down 44.7 percentage points year on year. This contraction shows it was less efficient because its expenses increased relative to its revenue.

Earnings Per Share

We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) for the same reason as long-term revenue growth. Compared to revenue, however, EPS highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.

Harley-Davidson’s EPS grew at an astounding 215,899% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years, higher than its 2% annualized revenue growth. However, this alone doesn’t tell us much about its business quality because its operating margin didn’t improve.

Harley-Davidson Trailing 12-Month EPS (GAAP)

In Q4, Harley-Davidson reported EPS of negative $2.44, down from negative $0.93 in the same quarter last year. This print missed analysts’ estimates, but we care more about long-term EPS growth than short-term movements. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Harley-Davidson’s full-year EPS of $2.61 to shrink by 28.5%.

Key Takeaways from Harley-Davidson’s Q4 Results

It was encouraging to see Harley-Davidson beat analysts’ revenue expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its EPS missed. Overall, this was a softer quarter. The stock traded down 11.3% to $17.87 immediately following the results.

Harley-Davidson’s latest earnings report disappointed. One quarter doesn’t define a company’s quality, so let’s explore whether the stock is a buy at the current price. If you’re making that decision, you should consider the bigger picture of valuation, business qualities, as well as the latest earnings. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.

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