Home Depot cuts guidance at investor day, cites housing headwinds

Yahoo Finance Video

December 10, 2025

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At Home Depot’s (HD) investor day on Tuesday, the home improvement retailer cut its same-store sales guidance amid housing market headwinds.

Yahoo Finance senior retail reporter Brooke DiPalma comes on Market Domination to share the biggest takeaways from Home Depot’s investor day event.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination.

Video Transcript

00:00 Speaker A

Home Depot laying out the blueprint of its 2026 outlook at its Investor Day. So, let’s pluck out the key details here. What do we need to know?

00:10 Brooke

Yeah, so all eyes were really on the focus that they put out for 2026. The company is expecting, initially, their preliminary 2026 outlook sees same store sales growth of flat to up 2%. Now, if, big if there, the housing market improves, then they expect to see same store sales growth of about between 5% to 6%. But they’re really waiting, and as we’ve all been waiting on this inflection point within the market, executives are saying that they anticipate these pressures will persist. They haven’t seen a catalyst or inflection point in the housing activity. But the CFO said an interesting comment. He he told investors at this investor today held in the New York Stock Exchange that they believe affordability concerns are pushing the housing market towards equilibrium as home prices are trending towards flat. He went on to say the CFO there, Richard McPhail, that that home prices are trending towards flat on the national level, and they are seeing declining in a significant number of markets. But it just doesn’t seem like it’s enough yet to really get consumers back into this housing market environment.

01:31 Speaker A

So bigger picture, what are sort of the broader housing dynamics at play on this one?

01:38 Brooke

Yeah, well, it was it was sort of interesting because they’re sort of trying to make the case that this is going to improve, that things are going to get moving, but they sort of laid out a few different dynamics that are still at play that’s causing consumers not to return to the housing market. The first thing, elevated interest rate and mortgage rate environment. They specifically said that 80% of outstanding mortgage rates are below the 30-year fixed of now, roughly 6.3%. So, why would you leave your low mortgage for a higher mortgage rate? They also went on to say that that elevated interest rate and mortgage rate environment since 2020 has really stifled housing turnover. They said that housing turnover has remained at historical lows since 2023 and that has significantly reduced demand for projects associated with both buying and selling their homes. And also we know and say that right now, the average age of a home is about 40 plus years. 55% of US homes are about 40 plus years, and that could be optimistic. That could be a, you know, potential opportunity for people to, you know, have to repair, do more renovations, do more maintenance work. So that could be a perhaps optimistic look into next year.

02:49 Speaker A

All right, Brooke, thank you. Appreciate it.

02:51 Brooke

Mhm.

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