Federal Reserve March Interest Rate Decision Forecast: 91% Probability of Holding Steady

According to the latest predictions on the Polymarket website, the probabilities for the Federal Reserve’s March policy decision are: a 91% chance of holding rates steady, a 7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, a 1.9% chance of a 25 basis point or more rate hike, and a 1.0% chance of a 50 basis point or more rate cut. Polymarket predicts a 26% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut a total of 75 basis points by 2026, a 24% chance of a 50 basis point cut, a 15% chance of a 100 basis point cut, and a 14% chance of a 25 basis point cut.