# February 10 | BTC Price Analysis

Key Points

Current Price: $69,750 (Data as of February 10, 09:33) Short-term Outlook: Cautiously rebounding. Daily RSI (33.27) approaching oversold territory, 1-hour MACD momentum turning positive, indicating short-term technical correction needs. However, long-term moving average resistance remains, so rebound potential may be limited. Key Support: $68,500 - $69,000 (Bollinger Band lower band support and psychological level) Key Resistance: $70,000 - $71,000 (Round numbers and recent hourly selling pressure zones)

Technical Indicator Analysis

From multi-timeframe technical indicators, BTC is currently at a critical technical divergence point:

RSI Indicators:

• Daily RSI is 33.27, in oversold zone, usually indicating short-term rebound potential
• 4-hour RSI is 48.26, near neutral, showing mid-term sentiment slightly warming
• 1-hour RSI is 46.46, in weak zone but not extremely oversold

MACD Momentum:

• 1-hour MACD histogram is +32.24, momentum turning positive, short-term bullish signal
• 4-hour MACD histogram is +291.21, mid-term momentum also beginning to strengthen
• Daily MACD histogram is -1173.48, long-term momentum still weak

Moving Average System:

• Price below all major moving averages (SMA20: $80,347, EMA20: $78,199)
• Current price of $69,750 significantly deviates from long-term averages, indicating mean reversion demand

Bollinger Bands Position:

• 1-hour Bollinger Band lower band at $68,528, coinciding with key support
• Price near Bollinger Band lower band, typically indicating short-term oversold condition

Market Sentiment and Derivatives Data

Open Interest: $91.86 billion, remaining at historically high levels, indicating high market participation but also potential volatility risk.

Funding Rate: 0.1477%, neutral leaning bullish, showing derivatives market sentiment is relatively balanced without extreme bullish or bearish signals.

Liquidations: Total liquidation in the past 24 hours was $124 million, with longs at $67.95 million and shorts at $56.45 million. Long to short liquidation ratio is 1.2:1, indicating leverage risk is relatively balanced.

Short-term Trend Forecast

Based on current technicals and derivatives data, BTC’s price action today may exhibit the following characteristics:

Bullish Scenario (Probability 40%):

• If support at $68,500 holds, potential rebound toward $70,000-71,000 resistance zone
• 1-hour MACD golden cross and daily RSI oversold provide technical rebound momentum
• Rebound height may be limited near $71,000 due to selling pressure

Bearish Scenario (Probability 30%):

• If support at $68,500 breaks, potential decline to $67,000-67,500 area
• Long-term moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, overall trend weak
• High open interest suggests breaking key levels could trigger chain reactions

Consolidation/Range-bound (Probability 30%):

• Most likely scenario is sideways movement within $68,500-$70,500
• Waiting for more fundamental catalysts or market sentiment shifts

Trading Recommendations

For Short-term Traders:

• Consider entering small long positions around $68,500-$69,000 with stop-loss below $68,000
• If rebound reaches $70,500-$71,000, consider reducing positions or shorting
• Be cautious with position sizing; high open interest indicates increased volatility

For Medium to Long-term Investors:

• Current price near technical support levels offers some investment opportunity
• Remain alert to macroeconomic factors and overall market environment
• Suggest gradual position building, avoiding heavy one-time allocations

Risk Warning: Derivatives market positions are high; any breakout in either direction could trigger significant volatility. Strict risk management is essential.