Huatai Securities: Under the new standard for electric meters, the industry is expected to achieve both volume and price growth by 2026

Huatai Securities Research Report states that on February 6, the State Grid’s 2026 marketing project measurement equipment special (the third batch of electricity meter bidding for 2025 that was unsuccessful) was publicly tendered and the bidding batch was listed online. The price was explicitly limited, with a general increase of over 20% compared to the second batch of 2025, marking a halt in decline and a rebound. Under the new standard for electricity meters, the industry is expected to achieve both volume and price growth in 2026, driving the recovery of corporate profitability. Leading companies with technological advantages are likely to gain higher market share in the early stages of implementing the new standards.

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Huatai | Power & New Energy: Price Rebound in the Supplementary Tender for New Standard Electricity Meters

Key Points

On February 6, the State Grid’s 2026 marketing project measurement equipment special (the third batch of unsuccessful electricity meter bids for 2025) was publicly tendered and listed online. The prices were explicitly limited, with a general increase of over 20% compared to the second batch of 2025, marking a halt in decline and a rebound. We are optimistic that under the new standard for electricity meters, the industry in 2026 will see both volume and price growth, aiding the recovery of corporate profitability. Leading companies with technological advantages are expected to secure higher market shares early in the rollout of the new standards.

The prices of new standard electricity meters have stopped falling and are rebounding. The expected bid prices in the supplementary tender batch could increase by 20%+

Electric meters first fully adopted the new standard in the third batch of 2025 bids. However, due to generally high quotes from companies, the bids ultimately failed, with opening prices for A/B/C/D-grade and high-end smart meters at 213/505/428/611/3579 yuan respectively, representing increases of 55%/46%/37%/111%/53% compared to the second batch of 2025. This round of supplementary bidding set explicit price limits for different parameter standards: typical price caps for A/B/C/D-grade and high-end smart meters are 170/435/380/570/3900 yuan. The price caps in this round generally increased by over 20% compared to the bid-winning prices of the second batch of 2025, marking a rebound.

Changes in the price scoring standards may lead to continued price competition

This round of supplementary bidding altered some of the scoring standards for electricity meters. The bid price range used for baseline price calculation was adjusted from [-10%, +5%] in the previous bid to [-15%, +5%] in the second batch of 2025, meaning that overly low bids could have a greater impact on the effective average price, potentially lowering it. The floating coefficient C range was adjusted from -0.5%~0.5% to -1%~0.25%, increasing the likelihood of negative floating coefficients. The penalty for prices 1% above the baseline increased from 1 point to 1.5 points, while the penalty for prices 1% below the baseline decreased from 0.3 points to 0.1 points. This widened the score difference between bids 1% above and below the baseline from 0.7 to 1.4 points. Overall, owners remain focused on procurement prices, and price competition among manufacturers may continue.

New standards introduced + supplementary demand, overall demand in 2026 is expected to remain high

Reviewing the bidding for measurement equipment in the first to third batches of 2025, a total of 66.47 million meters were bid for, with 16.96 million in the third batch failing, and the actual total bid volume for the year was 49.52 million, which is relatively low (based on an 8-10 year replacement cycle for electricity meters, corresponding to high demand in 2015). We believe that: 1) as standardized products, the actual bidding volume for meters in 2025 was low, so there is strong replenishment demand in 2026; 2) historically, after the launch of new standards, the first batch often adopts small-scale trial bidding, but annual demand tends to grow rapidly with the new standard rollout. Therefore, we expect overall demand in 2026 to remain high.

Optimistic about the new standard for electricity meters, industry volume and price are expected to rise together

We expect the bid prices for the supplementary batch of new standard meters in 2026 to increase by over 20% compared to the second batch of 2025. With the new standard meters already beginning to be bid on at scale, overall demand in 2026 is likely to be high. Leading companies with technological advantages are expected to gain higher market shares early in the implementation of the new standards.

Risk Warning: Electricity grid investment may underperform expectations, and industry competition could intensify.

(Source: People’s Financial News)