Is the biggest winner of this year's Super Bowl the prediction market?

Source: Bankless

Author: David Christopher

Original Title: Did Prediction Markets Win the Super Bowl?

Translation and Editing: BitpushNews

This year’s Super Bowl—Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots—may lack the superstar effect of last year’s Taylor Swift halftime show, but it marks a turning point: prediction markets are now clearly seen as a true competitor to traditional sports betting.

Two major prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, set up markets around this game, halftime show, commercials, and more, painting an interesting and complex picture based on preliminary data.

Before we begin, a quick note: sports betting operators have not yet reported their total wager amounts—this will take a few days. Therefore, this analysis is based on predictions from sports betting firms and actual trading volumes in prediction markets.

Sports Betting Predictions: New Highs, but Slowing Growth

The American Gaming Association estimates that U.S. sports betting handle for the 60th Super Bowl will be about $1.76 billion, setting a record and representing approximately 27% year-over-year growth. While figures vary slightly depending on sources, most predictions point in the same direction: reaching new highs, continuing an eight-year growth trend since the Supreme Court legalized sports betting in 2018.

However, the growth rate is clearly slowing. Currently, 39 states and Washington D.C. have legalized sports betting, with Missouri being the only new addition in this cycle—indicating that the explosive growth driven by market expansion in previous years is giving way to gradual increases. Against this backdrop, prediction markets are becoming another factor restraining growth. Ed Birkin of H2 Gambling Capital told Fortune that he estimates prediction markets will account for 80% of this year’s incremental betting activity compared to last year, with total trading volume during the entire event reaching $630 million.

Based on available data, prediction market performance appears to be well below that figure.

Kalshi

Kalshi’s dedicated Super Bowl markets—contracts directly linked to the game, halftime show, and broadcast—have generated a considerable but not yet predictive level of trading volume:

• Bad Bunny halftime show opening song: $113.5 million
• Which companies will debut ads: $72.2 million
• Who will perform during the game: $47.3 million

In just these top markets, total trading volume is about $233 million, far below analysts’ forecast of $630 million for the entire prediction market.

Additionally, Kalshi’s flagship NFL market—a “Who will win the Super Bowl” contract open for months throughout the season—has surpassed $500 million in total trading volume. But this figure reflects the cumulative trading volume over the entire NFL season, not just Super Bowl weekend. Even so, it’s less than one-third of the betting handle that sports bookmakers expect for a single Super Bowl game.

For months, sports betting has accounted for over 90% of Kalshi’s total trading volume, thanks to its promotional channels that are comparable to or better than those of sports betting companies.

First, Kalshi operates under federal regulation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), meaning U.S. users can access it directly via its mobile app, just like sports betting apps. Coupled with advertising funding from deep-pocketed venture capital, and partnerships with Robinhood, Kalshi stands out. This foundation is paying off: in January alone, Kalshi’s downloads reached 1.9 million, while DraftKings and FanDuel’s newly launched prediction market apps in December combined for less than 100,000 downloads (these apps are available in states where traditional sports betting apps are not yet permitted, but have seen limited response so far). Additionally, last Friday, DraftKings announced a partnership with Crypto.com to expand its event contract products, indicating that existing giants are taking this threat seriously.

Polymarket

Polymarket’s NFL season-long markets have traded around $700 million—more than Kalshi—but its Super Bowl-specific markets tell a different story. Polymarket’s top three Super Bowl markets have a combined trading volume of about $76 million:

• Home team market: $55.26 million
• Super Bowl MVP: $12 million
• Who will perform halftime show: $9 million

Polymarket lacks the regulatory approval that Kalshi has in the U.S., meaning American users cannot access it directly via mobile apps. Technically, after acquiring a CFTC-registered exchange last year, Polymarket now has a U.S. app, but it is still gradually opening through a waitlist, and its Super Bowl products are limited. As of one week before the game, no sports markets were listed on the app; the full suite of Super Bowl features is only available on its global website.

Therefore, most U.S. users still need to access via website or VPN. For casual sports bettors, this is not a comparable starting point to downloading Kalshi from the App Store.

However, Polymarket’s real strength lies in its primary use case—information discovery. In the halftime performer market, Lady Gaga’s probability has remained steady at around 80% in the days leading up to the event—long before her surprise appearance, which was not reported by Billboard magazine and indeed surprised everyone watching with me.

Regulatory Developments

All of this is happening amid unresolved regulatory conflicts.

Kalshi, as a federally regulated exchange under the CFTC, has been able to push forward with its sports contracts—especially after new CFTC Chair Michael Selig stated he would not block or transfer regulation to states. Meanwhile, state gaming regulators continue to challenge Kalshi and its peers in court, with many analysts expecting these cases to eventually reach the Supreme Court.

Currently, prediction markets operate in a gray area, allowing them to cover the entire country without needing individual state licenses—an structural advantage that traditional sports betting platforms find hard to replicate.

Summary

So, have prediction markets met the hype surrounding the Super Bowl LX? Not entirely, compared to the $630 million forecast.

The top Super Bowl-specific markets on the two leading platforms total about $310 million—roughly half of the predicted amount. The season-long NFL markets on both platforms have seen huge trading volumes, but these are accumulations over months, not a single-week burst during Super Bowl weekend.

Context is also important. Kalshi’s 1.9 million downloads in January make the combined prediction market apps of DraftKings and FanDuel look tiny. This pressure is already reflected in their stock prices—Fortune reports that FanDuel’s parent company, Flutter Entertainment, has seen its stock decline for eight consecutive weeks, the longest downtrend in 23 years; DraftKings’ stock remains near its lowest since 2023, down over 60% from its all-time high. Bloomberg data shows that market expectations for Flutter’s Q4 earnings have been cut nearly 49%, and DraftKings’ outlook has fallen 29%. Imagine if someone bet on Polymarket that “DraftKings will underperform expectations”—they might be quietly profiting right now.

Prediction markets may not have conquered the Super Bowl overnight, but they are now entering the room—and for traditional sports betting platforms, this trend is already enough to raise alarms.