Bitcoin's Measly Fear Sentiment: As the Gold Rally Falters, Is the Crypto Rotation Just a Mirage?

The crypto market is flashing some uncomfortable signals right now. Bitcoin is trading at $70.16K—down 10.97% over the past week and 22.43% over the past month. More troubling? The Fear & Greed Index is hovering around 50, suggesting market uncertainty. Meanwhile, gold continues its bullish run at $5,608 (all-time high), and silver keeps climbing toward $121, leaving many to wonder: where’s the crypto rotation everyone promised?

Analyst Benjamin Cowen isn’t mincing words about the divergence: “Bitcoin’s likely going to keep underperforming against the stock market.” The widely circulated theory that gold and silver’s rally would spark a massive digital asset rotation? Cowen dismisses it as “probably not going to happen” in the near term. The narrative that Bitcoin would act as a safe haven—digital gold, an inflation hedge—is being put to the test. Right now, BTC is behaving more like a speculative tech asset that retreats when risk appetite fades, rather than a portfolio shield.

The Bearish Case Gets Louder

The charts tell a harsh story: Bitcoin is losing the battle against equities. While traditional safe havens like gold are rallying, Bitcoin is trading like a risk asset. The contrast is jarring. Risk appetite is waning, and when it does, Bitcoin dumps alongside tech stocks rather than holding steady alongside gold and bonds.

Citi analysts are projecting silver could hit $150 within three months, driven by Chinese demand and dollar weakness. That thesis may play out. But the same tailwinds haven’t lifted cryptocurrency. The measly sentiment readings, combined with Bitcoin’s persistent underperformance, suggest the “gold-to-crypto rotation” thesis might have been wishful thinking all along.

But History Suggests a Different Story

Not everyone is convinced the bear narrative is locked in. Pav Hundal from Swyftx sees a critical pattern: “We’re right at the threshold where historically we’d expect to see risk assets re-enter Bitcoin.” His key observation? Bitcoin bottoms tend to lag gold strength by approximately 14 months. That calculation points to a potential bottom in February or March—and here’s the crucial part: we’re now in that window.

“If historical patterns hold—and it’s a big if—the gold-Bitcoin dynamic suggests a potential bottom could form within the next 40 days,” Hundal argues. Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch added another layer: as of early February, Bitcoin is “trading at a steep discount to gold,” a setup he calls “very rare” historically. He’s flagging Q1 2026 as a potential inflection point.

We’re At the Turning Point—Now What?

Here’s the reality: everything depends on whether historical patterns repeat. The bull case hinges entirely on the 14-month lag theory playing out exactly as it has before. The bear case rests on recognizing when those patterns finally break.

Bitcoin was supposed to be different. It was sold as digital gold—a safe haven in uncertain times, an inflation hedge when central banks print money. Except right now it’s acting like everything it wasn’t supposed to be. Gold is doing what safe havens do. Bitcoin isn’t. The question isn’t abstract anymore. Either the lag theory plays out and bulls get vindicated in the next 40 days, or the entire narrative just failed its first real stress test. We’ll have the answer soon enough.