Belgium Breakthrough: The Eastward Shift in Canada's Oil Trade Pattern

Over the past year, the global energy landscape has quietly shifted. The oil trade relationship between China and Canada is undergoing a transition from cold to hot. Behind this change are not only proactive cooperation from both sides but also the complex interplay of geopolitical and economic interests. Alberta, as the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is reshaping its role in energy trade.

Unexpected Rebound of U.S. Policy

Between 2024 and 2025, U.S. sanctions against Venezuela continued to escalate. The Washington government explicitly demanded that Venezuela sever its oil trade ties with China, restricting it to only cooperate with the U.S., and even pressured the Venezuelan interim government to repatriate Chinese companies. These measures seem straightforward—the goal is to cut off China’s energy supply chain.

In fact, Venezuela was originally a major source of China’s oil imports. Trade data shows that Venezuela exported about 80% of its oil products to China at relatively low prices, maintaining this supply relationship for years. U.S. policy aims to exert political pressure to force Venezuela to change its trade direction, thereby squeezing China’s access to energy.

However, this carefully crafted strategy was quickly met with cold reality.

Unexpected Rise of Alberta’s Energy

Canada’s oil resources happen to provide China with an ideal alternative. The heavy crude from Alberta is very similar in quality to Venezuelan oil, offering natural substitutability. This is not a coincidence but an objective fact of geography and resource endowment.

More critically, timing is tight. The Transmountain Pipeline expansion was completed in 2024, providing a direct route for Canadian crude to reach the Pacific Ocean. Logically, this should have created new opportunities for Canadian oil companies. But U.S. trade pressure and tariff threats against Canada instead caused serious sales difficulties for Canadian crude. By mid-2024, Alberta crude prices fell to multi-year lows, with large stocks accumulated, seeking export channels.

This misalignment of timing created an opportunity for China-Canada energy cooperation.

Chinese Companies’ Active Assessment

Following the upheaval in Venezuela, Chinese refining companies acted quickly. Traders revealed that large refineries that have long purchased Venezuelan crude are now actively evaluating the feasibility of sourcing from Canada. This is not a passive response but a strategic adjustment.

Data shows a surge in inquiries about Alberta crude. The 22 million barrels of Venezuelan crude stored in Asian waters, based on consumption rates, can only sustain two months of supply. This window is enough for China to complete the transition to Canadian supply chains.

Transportation and Cost Considerations

On the surface, Canadian crude is priced $8 to $9 higher per barrel than Venezuelan oil. This price difference seems to create a cost disadvantage. But the bills from coal companies show that the reality is more complex.

Transporting Canadian crude from the source to China takes only 17 days, compared to 57 days from Venezuela—a full 40 days faster. What does this mean? Faster supply chain turnover, shorter inventory holding periods, and reduced risk exposure. Plus, the flexibility to choose different types of tankers and adjust order timing means the actual overall cost advantage is significant.

Chinese refining companies have already calculated this. After weighing the factors, their reasons for choosing Alberta crude are compelling.

Hidden Geopolitical Drivers

It is worth noting that pressure from the Trump administration against Canada actually accelerated China-Canada energy cooperation. Tariff threats and even “annexation” rhetoric made Canadian policymakers realize the risks of over-reliance on the U.S. Canada’s leaders openly stated that “China-Canada relations are more predictable,” which is not only a recognition of cooperation but also a silent protest against U.S. unilateral policies.

The U.S. once controlled about 97% of Canada’s oil exports, a high proportion that has remained stable for a long time. Now, Alberta is deliberately diversifying its energy export destinations. Data from 2025 shows that China has purchased nearly 40% of Canada’s seaborne crude oil, and this share continues to grow. More interestingly, the proportion of oil transported via the Transmountain Pipeline to China reaches 64%, far exceeding the amount flowing to the U.S. The “backyard” situation for Trump has quietly been rewritten.

Long-term Win-Win Strategy

Unlike the hegemonic transactional model of the U.S., China-Canada energy cooperation embodies the concept of mutual benefit and win-win. Canada has opened up development rights for key energy projects like Alberta shale oil and offshore Newfoundland gas fields, while China provides stable long-term market commitments. This cooperation framework based on mutual trust offers far greater stability and sustainability than the constantly changing policies of the U.S.

The signing of the China-Canada energy agreement is no longer a temporary procurement relationship but a strategic long-term lock-in.

Turning Point in the Energy Landscape

The global energy geopolitical situation is at a sensitive turning point. The U.S. once tried to control Venezuela’s oil to choke China’s energy supply. But the reality has proven that energy diversification is the trend. Canada, as a major global energy supplier, shifting its strategic focus signals a further loosening of traditional energy hegemony.

This change is not solely the result of deliberate design by any one party but a natural backlash against U.S. unilateral policies. By pressuring allies and encircling opponents, the U.S. has inadvertently pushed its partners into the arms of its rivals. Alberta has escaped its sales slump, and China has gained a more stable energy supply. This “unintentional” alignment reveals a deeper truth in today’s international economic landscape: unilateralism will ultimately lead to self-destruction.