Federal Reserve Interest Rate Projections: Increased Chances of Cuts Toward Mid-2025

2026-02-09 23:12:15

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Based on data from the CME FedWatch monitoring tool released in early January, market projections regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy actions show an interesting trend for the first and second quarters of 2025. According to financial data platform Jin10, the chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in March remains relatively low at 15.3%, with the majority of the market expecting interest rates to stay at current levels (84.7%).

Projections become more dynamic as the April-June period approaches. In April, the likelihood of the U.S. central bank implementing a cumulative 25 basis point cut increases to 29.7%, while the scenario of no change drops to 67.2%. The indication becomes even stronger in June, when the probability of a 25 basis point rate decrease reaches 48.3%, signaling market expectations of an easing phase in monetary policy.

These projection data reflect market calculations based on economic conditions and inflation monitored by the Federal Reserve. Although March still shows rate resilience, the overall projection trend points toward possible cuts starting from April to June, indicating market hopes for easing economic conditions in the first half of the upcoming year.

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