ETH reaches $2.11K: the confirmed recession signal that predicted the collapses of 2018 and 2022

The scenario unfolding on the Ethereum charts deserves our full attention. As of February 2026, ETH is trading at $2.11K with a +0.26% move in 24 hours, but these superficial numbers hide a confirmed technical transformation that has left bullish investors without arguments. We are not facing a simple weekend pullback; market data reveal a structural break that affects the fundamentals of investor sentiment in this cryptocurrency.

The confirmed technical break: when the $2,800 barrier gave way under pressure

The collapse of the support level at $2,800 marks a crucial turning point. This was not just a number, but a boundary line separating relative stability from a potential free fall. Once breached, what technical analysts call a “descending triangle” was triggered — a pattern that historically precedes more aggressive bearish movements.

With the current price at $2.11K, the market has already advanced significantly in the direction predicted by technical patterns. The next defensive level was theoretically at $2,500, where the 200-week moving average converges. If this level fails, technical theory projects an extension of the fall to $2,100 — an additional correction that would be nearly complete at the current quote.

Momentum indicators reveal that the 111-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day, a configuration that technically signals a clear dominance of selling pressure over buyers. This divergence, observed in previous patterns, has preceded prolonged periods of weakness.

NUPL in the orange zone: when the fear indicator confirms recession

The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator has just transitioned from the “anxiety” zone to the “panic” zone — a change that should not be interpreted as a minor anecdote. This parameter measures whether Ethereum holders are gaining or losing money without selling, functioning as a thermometer of the accumulated sentiment on the network.

Historically, every time ETH has entered this orange panic zone, crypto markets have experienced prolonged winters. The periods of 2018 and 2022 are clear testimonies: both were preceded by this confirmed panic signal in the NUPL. The repetition of this pattern suggests that the market could face an environment of extended aversion, not a brief correction.

The convergence of these two indicators — the technical support break and the NUPL turning to panic — creates a picture that analysis professionals take seriously.

Next critical levels: resistance or downward continuation?

The question hanging in the market is how Ethereum will behave in these upcoming moves. With $2.11K as the current quote, the asset has already reached the levels that technical theory suggested as bearish targets.

There are three probable scenarios: first, stabilization at these levels if institutional buyers emerge. Second, lateral consolidation that generates accumulation patterns for subsequent recovery. Third, a downward continuation toward $2,000 or lower if selling pressure persists.

Investors face the classic decision: is this a confirmed opportunity to accumulate at the best price offered in months, or is it the prelude to a crypto winter that will force participants to remain cautious for an extended period? ETH has provided the technical signal, but the market still needs to confirm whether it recognizes its significance.