Gold 2026: UBS Raises Price Forecast to $6,200/Ounce Based on Standard Deviation Formula

HalfBuddhaMoney · 2026-02-09T14:18:24+00:00

UBS maintains a positive outlook for gold prices in 2026, raising its target from $5,000 to $6,200 per ounce, while predicting a modest adjustment to $5,900 at year-end. The bank explores optimistic ($7,200) and pessimistic ($4,600) scenarios, reflecting market uncertainties influenced by global economic factors.

HalfBuddhaMoney

2026-02-09 14:18:24

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UBS still maintains a positive outlook on gold prices in 2026. According to information from BlockBeats, this leading financial organization has just updated its quarterly valuation targets for the year, reflecting optimism about the precious metal’s trend.

Price Target Adjustment: From $5,000 to $6,200 per Ounce

UBS has upgraded its price targets for the first, second, and third quarters of 2026 from the previous $5,000/ounce to $6,200/ounce. This indicates a strong bullish signal from the investment bank, suggesting that gold prices could continue to break out in the coming months.

However, UBS forecasts a moderate correction by the end of 2026, with a target lowered to $5,900/ounce. This level remains significantly higher than the initial forecast, showing that the long-term outlook of the experts remains highly optimistic.

Two Hypothetical Scenarios: Using the Standard Deviation Formula

UBS presents two different scenarios to reflect market uncertainty:

Optimistic scenario: Target $7,200/ounce – corresponding to an increased standard deviation relative to the average forecast
Pessimistic scenario: Target $4,600/ounce – reflecting a decreased standard deviation in the risk calculation

The standard deviation formula allows analysts to quantify volatility and determine price ranges corresponding to different probability levels. In this case, these indicators suggest that the gold market holds significant upside potential but also carries downside risks if economic conditions change.

Market Outlook Analysis and Factors

The upward revision of these price targets by UBS indicates the experts’ confidence in gold demand amid the global economic landscape. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, monetary policy, and central bank demand can significantly influence the realized price channel compared to these forecasted targets.

BlockBeats points out that these scenarios reflect UBS’s comprehensive outlook, from the most optimistic ($7,200) to the cautious outcomes ($4,600), with an average forecast around $6,200-$5,900 in 2026.

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