When Quantum Computing Becomes Commercially Viable: ARK Invest Forecast

JustAnotherWallet · 2026-02-09T11:02:57+00:00

The essay analyzes the commercialization timeline of quantum computing, as discussed by ARK Invest's Cathy Wood. She suggests real-world applications may emerge between 2040 and 2060, noting fundamental challenges in technology development. Despite a cautious outlook, recent progress hints at a slightly optimistic future, shifting the prediction to 19 years from now.

JustAnotherWallet

2026-02-09 11:02:57

Abstract generation in progress

The investment and technology industry has long been pondering a bold question: when will quantum computing cease to be just a theory and become practical solutions? ARK Invest founder Cathy Wood, whose analysis always attracts attention, attempted to provide a detailed answer to this key puzzle of modern technology.

Why the commercialization of quantum computing requires a long wait

According to Odaily, Wood emphasized that questions about quantum computing are among the most common when discussing future innovation trends. Over the past few years, ARK Invest has conducted in-depth research into the current state of this field, analyzing both technological capabilities and practical obstacles.

The commercialization of quantum technologies faces fundamental challenges: the need to create stable equipment, develop scalable algorithms, and find real-world applications. These factors explain why even the most optimistic experts speak of quite distant timelines for implementation.

Forecast 2040-2060: when to expect a real breakthrough

Based on a comprehensive analysis, Cathy Wood suggested that mass commercial applications of quantum computing will emerge between 2040 and 2060. This is a fairly conservative but well-founded estimate that reflects a realistic view of technological development.

The two-decade range considers various scenarios: accelerated development in the case of breakthrough discoveries, as well as a slower pace if current research tempos are maintained.

The 20-year rule: why technologies always seem two decades ahead

Drawing from many years of experience in the investment sector, Wood noted an interesting pattern: the commercialization of advanced technologies always seems to be “20 years ahead.” This observation may evoke a smile, but it conceals a deeper truth about the pace of technological development.

However, with decades of experience in this field behind her, the analyst has revised her estimate toward a slight optimism. According to her current calculations, real solutions based on quantum computing may appear not too far in the future — perhaps just 19 years from now. This revision, even if modest, confirms that progress in quantum computing, although slow, is nonetheless occurring.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.