OTC Trading Week and the Parabolic Peak Formula in Comprehensive Bitcoin Sell-Off

Looking at the trading week from January 30, 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant sell-off, accompanied by warning signals indicated through the parabola peak formula. The combination of macroeconomic factors, changing investor sentiment, and geopolitical events created a complex backdrop, where the parabola peak formula—a model used to identify market tops before a correction occurs—became extremely important.

Precious Metals Break Out as Bitcoin Plummets - Unusual Divergence

In recent weeks, a remarkable phenomenon has occurred in the market: precious metals have recorded astonishing growth. Gold repeatedly hit all-time highs, temporarily reaching $5,600 per ounce, while silver also surpassed the $120 mark. These prices reflect widespread fear within the global investor community.

In contrast, Bitcoin—often called “digital gold”—has been in a continuous weak phase. Since mid-November 2025, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested lower support levels of the established trading channel, especially after falling below the psychological $100,000 threshold. Short-term recoveries from these levels have never been strong enough, increasing the likelihood of a more severe crash each day.

Interestingly, optimistic FOMO sentiment and profits from precious metals have not similarly spread to the cryptocurrency market. This indicates a divergence in risk perception among investors: those seeking safety have shifted toward gold and silver, while capital is being withdrawn from the crypto ecosystem.

Identifying the Parabola Peak: When Multidimensional Factors Trigger a Sell-Off

The actual collapse began on Thursday (January 22). The previous Wednesday, Microsoft announced Q3 earnings that exceeded revenue and EPS expectations. However, high capital expenditure guidance for AI investments raised concerns about actual profitability from these investments. MSFT dropped about 10% on Thursday, triggering a domino effect on most AI-related stocks, with Meta being a notable exception.

Meanwhile, escalating US-Iran tensions prompted a frantic rush to safe assets. Oil, gold, and silver surged—this was precisely when the parabola peak formula issued a warning signal. The parabolic price action of precious metals suggested an imminent top, and indeed, both gold and silver subsequently declined by 8-10%, increasing pressure across the entire financial market.

Bitcoin and the crypto market were hit hard. The support level of $84,000—which analysts previously emphasized as critical—was decisively broken. As Bitcoin failed to quickly reclaim this level, further downside targets emerged: $80,000 and even $74,600 (the low from April 2025).

Short-Term Outlook: When the Parabola Peak Formula Foresees Next Volatility

Currently, Bitcoin is at $69.75K, down 0.60% in the past 24 hours. This target is even lower than the previously warned $74,600, indicating that selling pressure remains very strong.

Short-term conditions remain challenging. Long-term liquidations accelerate the sell-off, and Bitcoin now shows a high correlation with US tech stocks during risk-off phases. Capital continues to flow out of crypto ETFs, reflecting a significant shift toward AI-focused investments.

A very notable observation is that some Bitcoin miners are reorienting their infrastructure to serve AI computing and high-performance tasks. This is reflected in Bitcoin’s hash rate decreasing by over 4% in the past 30 days—a clear signal that capital and interest have shifted away from cryptocurrencies.

Long-Term Outlook for Crypto: Surpassing the Current Parabola Peak

Although the short-term situation shows considerable pressure, experts maintain an optimistic view of Bitcoin and digital assets over the long term. Several fundamental factors support this outlook:

First, global liquidity conditions are still improving. Central banks remain supportive, albeit gradually.

Second, cryptocurrency applications are driving genuine innovation. PayFi (payment finance) and real-world assets are increasing, creating new use cases for blockchain.

Third, the momentum from precious metals is likely to spill over into cryptocurrencies as the US dollar continues to weaken.

Fourth, significant progress in regulatory frameworks in the US and internationally is creating a better legal environment for the crypto ecosystem.

These factors, combined, will ultimately restore capital flows and growth momentum for cryptocurrencies. While the parabola peak formula may warn of short-term corrections, it does not alter the long-term trajectory.

Macroeconomic Landscape - Key Data Points

Week of January 22-28, 2026 - Major Economic Events:

Thursday, January 22: The US economy expanded by 4.4% (quarter-over-quarter) in Q3 2025, surpassing the forecast of 4.3% and accelerating from Q2 (3.8%). Employment also showed steady health with 200,000 initial unemployment claims, below the forecast of 209,000. Inflation (PCE) remained steady at 2.8% year-over-year.

Friday, January 23: Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, but raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 0.9% and for 2026 to 1.0%.

Monday, January 26: US durable goods orders surged by 5.3%, well above the forecast of 3.1%.

Tuesday, January 27: Consumer confidence dropped to 84.5 from 94.2 last month—a significant decline of 9.7 points, indicating rising concerns.

Wednesday, January 28: Both Bank of Canada (maintaining 2.25%) and the US Federal Reserve (holding at 3.75%) kept interest rates steady. Chair Powell declined to provide specific guidance on future rate paths, avoided commenting on USD volatility, and did not comment on government-related issues.

This mixed economic data—strong economic activity but weakening consumer confidence—creates an optimal environment for movements reminiscent of the parabola peak formula, where both positive and negative signals coexist before a correction occurs.