When Bitcoin returns to starting with 6: What signal is the market waiting for after the oversell | Special Analysis

Last week, shortly after the weekly report concluded, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $60,000. Many friends sent me private messages expressing concern about Bitcoin’s future trend. For investors who had already positioned themselves around $80,000 or earlier, the pressure from the on-paper drawdown is obvious. I completely understand this sentiment—we’ve all experienced similar moments, more or less, during different cycles. Anxiety, helplessness, and even giving up.

But it is precisely during these stages that emotions are more likely to become a source of risk than the market direction itself. Instead of being driven by short-term fluctuations, it’s better to stabilize your mindset and reassess your positions and rhythm. Because next, the market may stage a rebound, and such volatility often provides investors with an opportunity to actively adjust: by gradually reducing risk exposure step by step, or by employing more flexible and quick swing trading strategies, gradually averaging down costs and easing pressure, so as to face upcoming uncertainties more calmly.

I hope my article can offer some new perspectives when everyone feels confused and lost:

Core Summary of the Trading Weekly Report:

• Internal structure analysis and projection of the C wave decline initiated on January 14. (Detailed explanation in Chart 1)

• Short-term strategy execution effectiveness verification: Last week, trading followed the established short-term strategy, completing two rounds of short-term trades (1x leverage), with a total profit of approximately 10.72%.

• Mid-term strategy execution effectiveness verification: Last week, following the mid-term strategy, holding a short position opened at $89,000 (1x leverage), with a profit of about 20.97% by week’s close, and a maximum profit of approximately 32.58% during the period.

• Core short-term view verification: Last week, under the resonance of weekly and daily bear markets, the price broke through multiple support levels consecutively, ultimately finding support near $60,000. The market trend aligns with our previous expectations for the C wave correction.

The following will review in detail the market forecast, strategy execution, and specific trading processes.

1. Analysis of Bitcoin’s Correction Structure and Projection of Future C Wave Trend

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart:

Chart 1

1. Main structure analysis:

Currently, since the high of $126,200 in October 2025, this correction shows an A-B-C three-wave structure:

• Wave A (impulse downward): from $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $80,600 (2025-11-21), lasting 46 days, with a maximum decline of 36%.

• Wave B (rebound correction): from $80,600 (2025-11-21) to $97,924 (2026-01-14), lasting 54 days, with a maximum rise of 21.5%.

• Wave C (main decline wave): from $97,924 (January 14) to present, lasting 25 days, with a maximum decline of 38.7%.

2. Sub-structure analysis: detailed breakdown of impulse and correction waves

①. Wave A can be subdivided into 3 segments: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3:

** • Segment 0-1:** from $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $103,528 (2025-10-17), lasting 11 days.

** • Segment 1-2:** from $103,528 (2025-10-17) to $116,400 (2025-10-27), lasting 10 days.

** • Segment 2-3:** from $116,400 (2025-11-21) to $80,600 (2025-11-21), lasting 25 days.

②. Wave B subdivided into 3 segments: 3-4, 4-5, 5-6:

** • Segment 3-4:** from $80,600 (2025-11-21) to $94,589 (2025-12-09), lasting 18 days.

** • Segment 4-5:** from $94,589 (2025-12-09) to $84,450 (2025-12-18), lasting 9 days.

** • Segment 5-6:** from $84,450 (2025-12-18) to $97,924 (2026-01-14), lasting 17 days.

③. Projection of internal structure of Wave C, divided into three possible forms:

First scenario (high probability): Wave C consists of 3 segments

** • Segment 6-7 (initial impulse decline),** target achieved: from $97,924 (2026-01-14) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting 23 days, with a maximum decline of 38.7%. (Based on adjustment time and decline magnitude, $60,000 is highly likely to be the first correction low point within Wave C)

** • Segment 7-8 (expected rebound):** dashed line in the chart, representing the upcoming or ongoing rebound phase. The rebound height is unlikely to surpass $97,924 (Wave B peak). Key resistance zones to watch are $72,000–$74,500 and above, around $80,000–$80,600.

** • Segment 8-9 (final decline):** dashed line in the chart, initiating the last drop. Its target zone can be projected by measuring Wave A’s amplitude. In the future, $60,000 will be broken, and the price will test lower technical support levels.

Second scenario (less probable): Wave C subdivides into 5 or more complex segments

This scenario assumes that after the first 3 segments are completed, the market has not shown clear bottom reversal signals, requiring further judgment based on the strength of the correction and the structure type.** It implies a much longer correction period, potentially evolving into a “descending wedge” or “multiple three-wave” complex structure. This path is usually triggered by macro deterioration or liquidity drying up, and while less likely in the current environment, it cannot be completely ruled out.

Third scenario (very low probability): V-shaped reversal, correction ends, reversal begins

** • Segment 6-7:** initial impulse decline, target achieved: from $97,450 (2026-01-14) to $60,000 (2026-02-06).

** • Segment 7-8 (V-shaped reversal):** dashed line in the chart. An unusually strong rebound that can break through the previous high of $97,924 and sustain above it, accompanied by major positive news in financial markets. If this occurs, it suggests that the entire A-B-C correction starting from $126,200 may have ended in a simplified form at $60,000. Although extremely unlikely, a clear trigger would be a strong breakout above $97,924, serving as a key reversal signal.

In summary, these three projections are based on market behavior logic and are not certainties. Regardless of how the market evolves, always remember: “The market is always right.”

2. Last week’s Bitcoin trading strategies and key level review (02.02–02.08):

1. Short-term trading review: as shown in (Chart 2)

We strictly followed our self-developed spread trading model and momentum quantification model signals, combined with market trend forecasts, completing two short-term trades with a total profit of 10.72%.

Details and review of trades:

①. Short-term trade results: (1x leverage)

Chart 2

②. Short-term trade review:

• First trade (profit 3.69%):

• Entry: Resistance at $80,000 during rebound, combined with two model short signals, established a 30% short position at $77,808.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss at $81,000.

• Exit: near support at $74,500, combined with spread model bottom signal (red dot) and candlestick bottoming pattern, fully closed at $74,930.

• Second trade (profit 7.03%):

• Entry: Resistance at $69,000, combined with two model short signals, established a 30% short position at $68,311.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss at $71,000.

• Exit: near support at $63,000, combined with two model bottom resonance signals, fully closed at $63,502.

Bitcoin 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum quantification model + spread trading model)

Chart 3

2. Mid-term strategy review:

Maintain the plan to hold 60% short positions opened around $89,000.

3. Key levels from last week:

Resistance zone: $80,000–$80,600

First support: $72,000–$74,500

Second support: $69,000–$72,500

3. Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s trend this week (02.09–02.15):

Based on market operation, I analyze Bitcoin’s structure in depth using self-constructed trading systems, from multiple models and dimensions.

1. As shown in (Chart 4), from weekly chart analysis:

Bitcoin Weekly K-line Chart: (Momentum quantification model + sentiment quantification model)

Chart 4

• Momentum quantification model: Technical indicators show that last week’s shorting momentum further released, with both momentum lines trending downward, negative energy bars expanding, indicating an accelerated correction.

Momentum model forecast: Price decline index: high

• Sentiment quantification model: Blue sentiment line at 38, with zero strength; yellow sentiment line at 11, also zero, peak at 0.

Sentiment model forecast: Support index: neutral

• Digital monitoring model: No signals detected at tops or bottoms.

Monitoring model forecast: no bottom signals; weekly candle closed with a long lower shadow large bearish candle, with a decline of about 8.63%.

These data indicate: Bitcoin weekly trend is bearish, but short-term bearish momentum shows signs of weakening.

2. As shown in (Chart 5), from daily chart analysis:

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Momentum quantification model + sentiment quantification model)

Chart 5

• Momentum quantification model: Last week showed a pattern of “accelerated decline – bottoming rebound.” After Sunday’s close, the white momentum line slowed its decline, and negative energy bars shrank over three days.

Momentum model forecast: Daily bearish trend, bulls beginning resistance.

• Sentiment quantification model: After Sunday’s close, the sentiment model triggered a bottom warning signal (red dot), and both sentiment lines started turning upward.

Sentiment model forecast: support strength gradually increasing.

These data suggest: on the daily level, the trend remains bearish but has triggered a short-term bottom warning, indicating a short-term rebound has begun.

4. Market forecast for this week (02.09–02.15):

1. Core view: observe whether last week’s low of $60,000 is broken, and monitor the rebound strength starting from this level. (If price drops below $60,000, then the detailed 6-7 segment correction of Wave C is still ongoing, and the rebound triggered at point 7 has not yet begun.)

2. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance zone: $72,000–$74,500 (near last April’s low)

• Second resistance zone: $80,000–$80,600 (near Wave B start point)

3. Key support levels:

• First support zone: $60,000–$62,500 (near recent correction low)

• Second support zone: $57,400 (near 210-week moving average)

• Important support: $52,500 (near the symmetric point of 1x Wave A decline)

5. Trading plan for this week (excluding unexpected news impact): (02.09–02.15)

1. Mid-term strategy: maintain 60% short positions. If a rebound effectively breaks through $74,500, reduce to 40%.

2. Short-term strategy: use 30% position, set stop-loss points based on support and resistance levels, and look for “spread” trading opportunities (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

3. To dynamically respond to market changes and based on real-time model signals, we prepare two short-term plans: A and B:

• Plan A: If the price rebounds to $74,500–$75,200 and encounters resistance:

• Entry: Trigger resistance signal in this zone, combined with model top signals, establish 15% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss near cost price + 1.5% (i.e., 1.015× cost price).

• Exit: near key support levels, gradually close positions based on model signals for profit-taking.

• Plan B: If the price rebounds to $80,000–$80,600 and encounters resistance:

• Entry: trigger resistance signal in this zone, combined with model top signals, establish 30% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss near cost price + 1.5%.

• Exit: near support levels, gradually close positions based on model signals for profit-taking.

6. Special reminders:​​

1. When opening a position: immediately set initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move stop-loss to the break-even point (cost price) to protect principal.

3. When profit reaches 2%: move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: for every additional 1% profit, move stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting gains and locking profits.