Market Indicator: Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin returning to $75,000 in February is as high as 64%

On February 9, 2026, Bitcoin’s price rebounded to around $71,000, attracting the attention of global crypto investors. Market focus not only centered on the fluctuations of spot prices but also turned to prediction market platform Polymarket.

Data shows that the market probability of “Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in February” has risen to 64%. Meanwhile, expectations for other price points also emerged, indicating traders’ differing judgments on the short-term market direction.

Market Sentiment Indicators

Crypto prediction markets are emerging as a new barometer for market sentiment. Unlike traditional financial markets’ futures or options, they allow users to bet with cryptocurrencies on the outcomes of future events.

As a representative platform in this field, Polymarket’s trading activity directly reflects the collective wisdom of the crypto community. When traders put real money on a particular outcome, these transactions coalesce into a market sentiment and probability forecast.

For example, in Bitcoin price predictions, traders can buy shares of “Yes” or “No.” The real-time trading price of these shares directly reflects the market’s perceived probability of the event occurring.

According to Polymarket’s rules, the final ruling will be based on the highest price of any one-minute K-line within any minute in February for the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. This transparent, on-chain data-based ruling mechanism ensures the credibility of prediction markets.

Collective Prediction Probabilities

Current data on Polymarket shows a clear probability distribution for short-term Bitcoin price expectations.

Core forecast: The market for “Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February” shows a stable “Yes” probability of 65%, with the corresponding share price at $0.65. This aligns closely with the industry media’s widely reported 64% probability.

Optimistic outlook: Market optimism does not stop at $75,000. Data indicates a 30% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in February, and a 17% chance of hitting $85,000.

Risk warning: At the same time, the market also reflects considerations of downside risks. The probability of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in February is 34%, indicating some traders expect a price correction.

Crypto Market Background

The popularity of prediction markets is built on Bitcoin’s strong performance in the spot market. After a period of consolidation, Bitcoin’s price showed signs of recovery in early February 2026.

Recently, Bitcoin’s price has again surpassed the important psychological threshold of $70,000. Short-term price fluctuations are also closely watched, such as micro-contracts predicting Bitcoin’s price movement within specific 15-minute windows on February 10.

Long-term disagreements also exist. A contract on Polymarket set to be settled by January 2027 asks traders to decide whether Bitcoin will first hit $60,000 or break through $80,000.

These diverse prediction products provide tools for traders with different risk preferences to express their market views and offer a unique perspective for broader investors to observe market sentiment.

Interpreting Market Indicators

Prediction market probabilities are not precise forecasts but signals of consensus formed by market participants’ capital votes. They aggregate traders’ comprehensive judgments on information, trends, and sentiment.

When the probability of “reaching $75,000” rises from a low point to 64%, it indicates that bullish sentiment is dominating the crypto community. Such shifts in sentiment often precede significant price movements in the spot market or occur simultaneously.

Understanding this probability requires considering the high trading volume background. The total trading volume of related prediction markets has reached $39.3 million, demonstrating high market participation and capital attention.

Large trading volumes mean ample liquidity, and the resulting prices better reflect genuine, widespread market expectations rather than being easily manipulated by a few funds.

Platform Strategies and Opportunities

For traders, the probabilities provided by prediction markets are key decision-making aids, not the sole basis for action. Rational decisions require integrating spot prices, technical analysis, fundamentals, and data such as prediction market probabilities.

Take the Gate platform as an example. Its native token GATE was priced at about $0.0071 on February 9, reflecting the market’s valuation of its ecosystem. This adds a multi-layered value discovery landscape alongside mainstream assets like Bitcoin.

In the highly volatile crypto markets, risk management is always a core concern. Probabilities revealed by prediction markets help traders better understand the market’s recognized potential upside and downside risks.

For example, a 34% chance of falling to $60,000 reminds traders to prepare strategies for potential pullbacks while pursuing the $75,000 target.

Summary

The market assigns a 64% probability to Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in the remaining days of February. Meanwhile, long-term contracts betting on whether it will first break $80,000 or fall to $60,000 are quietly awaiting the answer over time.

Crypto market price fluctuations never cease—from spot exchanges to prediction markets, countless orders weave the future price trajectory. Regardless of the outcome, these consensus signals formed by capital votes have left a profound mark on this global digital asset experiment.

Ultimately, all prediction probabilities will be finalized after 11:59 PM Eastern Time on February 28, based on the highest price of the last one-minute K-line on Binance. Markets are always in flux, and the eyes seeking value remain ever bright.