The sharp market decline this week was not caused by a single factor but rather a “perfect storm” driven by macro policy shocks combined with internal market vulnerabilities.

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.24 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 58.4%, totaling $1.3 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $305.1 billion, down 0.48% over the past 7 days, with USDT making up 60.64%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, nearly all declined, including: Bitcoin down 20.22% over 7 days, Ethereum down 30.04%, Solana down 30.27%, HYPE defying the trend with a 12.71% increase over 7 days, and SKR up 49.47% over 7 days.

This week, net outflows from US Bitcoin spot ETFs amounted to $358 million; net outflows from US Ethereum spot ETFs totaled $170.4 million.

Market Forecast (February 9 - February 15):

BTC: $67,000 - $82,000

ETH: $1,900 - $2,200

SOL: $86 - $120

The current RSI index is 33.03 (weak zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 10 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 41 (neutral, consistent with last week).

The dramatic decline this week was not due to a single factor but a “perfect storm” led by macro policy shocks combined with internal market fragility. Main reasons:

• The nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Woorh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is a key trigger for market panic. Woorh is known for his extremely hawkish stance. The market broadly interprets that if he takes office, global liquidity will continue to tighten, posing a deadly blow to risk assets reliant on loose liquidity, such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks.
• Before the plunge, the market had accumulated large leveraged long positions. When prices broke key support levels (e.g., Bitcoin at $65,000), it triggered widespread chain-reaction forced liquidations. The cycle of decline → liquidation → further decline is a primary technical reason for the sharp drop.
• On February 6, the People’s Bank of China issued a notice explicitly banning the issuance of stablecoins linked to the Renminbi without permission. Although mainly targeting domestic markets, in a fragile global market sentiment environment, this heightened investor concerns over “regulatory tightening worldwide.”

Next week, the market is expected to continue digesting macro pressures, remaining in a wide-range oscillation phase, searching for bottom support. The market has entered the “extreme fear” zone, which is often an important contrarian indicator nearing a market bottom, but confirmation requires ETF net inflows and continued stablecoin growth.

If support levels are broken, a deeper decline may occur:

• The new Fed Chair makes hawkish comments far exceeding expectations, or key inflation/employment data unexpectedly strong, leading to expectations of higher and longer interest rates.
• Capital continues to withdraw: Bitcoin ETF funds are accelerating outflows, indicating persistent institutional retreat.
• Black swan events: such as major exchange/project collapses or geopolitical crises.

Overall, while acknowledging the market is in a downtrend, there is a technical rebound demand and room after the recent sharp drops, rather than a straight plunge.

Understand the Current Situation

Weekly Major Events

1. On February 2, Monday morning, the USD/JPY exchange rate strengthened, Asian stock index futures generally declined, and US stock index futures fell 1%, highlighting the fragility of market sentiment after a volatile week on Wall Street. Early in the session, spot gold dropped by 3.5%, silver nearly 9%, and WTI crude oil fell 4%. Previously, gold and silver prices plunged due to a sharp decline in precious metals and the impact of Trump’s nomination of Kevin Woorh as the next Fed Chair, with the USD experiencing its largest single-day gain since May last year.
2. On February 1, renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, posted a hint that Bitcoin would fall to $58,000, with a chart showing BTC near the lower bound of the logarithmic channel, implying a continuation of the bear market. Two days earlier, Peter Brandt predicted “Bitcoin will bottom out between August and October and then surge.”
3. On February 4, US President Trump signed a government funding bill in the Oval Office, ending the partial government shutdown. Earlier that day, the US House of Representatives passed funding bills for several federal departments for the remainder of the fiscal year starting January 31, resolving the partial shutdown deadlock. The bill funds multiple federal agencies until September 30, the end of the fiscal year, and provides two weeks of funding for the Department of Homeland Security amid recent immigration enforcement controversies, allowing ongoing negotiations to improve operations.
4. On February 5, Trump stated that “Woorh would be out if he proposed rate hikes early,” and Bessent said the President could intervene in the Fed.
5. On February 5, Bitcoin briefly fell below $74,000 in early US trading, but the previous day’s low quickly rebounded, with tech stocks selling off again, dragging down crypto market sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 continued to weaken, with software sector plunging sharply, intensifying concerns over AI industry impacts.
6. On February 5, Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin, announced his departure to explore new directions in tech, while remaining chairman of the largest SOL treasury company.
7. On February 6, global risk markets declined again, with Bitcoin falling below $60,000, Ethereum dropping below $1,800; US stock futures widened losses, with S&P 500 futures down 1%, Nasdaq futures down 1.6%, Dow futures down nearly 0.6%. Precious metals also declined: spot gold touched $4,660/oz, down 2.51% intraday; spot silver plunged 9.00% to $64.38/oz; spot palladium fell 4.00% to $1,574.96/oz. The Nikkei 225 index dropped below 53,000 points, down 1.57% intraday. South Korea’s KOSPI 200 futures fell 5%, with algorithmic trading paused for 5 minutes.
8. On February 5, according to Antpool data, based on current Bitcoin mining difficulty and electricity costs of $0.08 per kWh, mining machines including Ant S19 XP+ Hyd, Shima M60S, Avalon A1466I, and some Ant S21 models have reached shutdown price levels. S21Pro and S21+ Hyd are close to shutdown prices around $65,000 to $69,000. High-hashrate miners like Antminer U3S23H and S23 Hyd have shutdown prices above $44,000.

Macroeconomics

1. On February 4, US January employment data showed fewer jobs added than expected, indicating continued slowdown in the early-year labor market. ADP data on Wednesday showed private sector employment increased by only 22,000 jobs in January, below expectations, with previous month’s data revised downward.
2. On February 5, the Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, in line with expectations. Five members voted to hold rates, four voted to cut. The Bank indicated rates might be further lowered.
3. On February 5, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31 were 231,000, versus an expected 212,000, and the previous figure was 209,000.
4. On February 7, CME “FedWatch” data showed a 12% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in March, with an 82.3% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of maintaining rates until April is 66.4%, with a 30.2% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and 3.4% for a 50 basis point cut.

ETFs

Between February 3 and February 9, net outflows from US Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $358 million; as of February 6, Grayscale’s GBTC had outflows totaling $25.832 billion, with holdings of $11.17 billion; BlackRock’s IBIT held $53.511 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $92.399 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETF net outflows amounted to $170.4 million.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

1. Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will be held from February 11 to 12 in Hong Kong, China.
2. ETHDenver 2026 will take place from February 17 to 21 in Denver, USA.
3. EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. EthCC is one of Europe’s largest and oldest annual Ethereum conferences, focusing on technology and community development.

Project Developments

1. The stablecoin protocol Cap will conduct its first token sale via Uniswap on February 9, with 10% of the total supply allocated for sale, initial FDV of $150 million.
2. The Trust Wallet security incident compensation application deadline is February 14. Trust Wallet reminds users affected by this incident not to continue using the wallets, update to the latest version, and immediately migrate funds.

Important Events

1. On February 10 at 21:30, the US will release December retail sales monthly rate.
2. On February 11 at 21:30, the US will release January unemployment rate.
3. On February 12 at 21:30, the US will release initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 (in ten-thousands).
4. On February 13 at 21:30, the US will release January unadjusted CPI year-over-year.

Token Unlocks

1. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 138 million tokens on February 10, valued at approximately $4.58 million, representing 5.96% of circulating supply.
2. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.28 million tokens on February 10, worth about $12.07 million, or 0.69% of circulating supply.
3. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on February 11, valued at approximately $14.33 million, or 0.32% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your trading. Through “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Reports,” we analyze market trends; with our exclusive column “Hot Coins Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Weekly, our researchers also connect with you via live streams to interpret hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that with warm companionship and professional guidance, more investors can navigate cycles and seize Web3 opportunities.