How much more can Bitcoin drop from the $60,000 level? Explore three major scenarios to determine where the bottom might be.

Author: Deep潮 TechFlow

Early morning on February 6th, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, the entire crypto community was in panic. Since the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, Bitcoin has already dropped 52%.

But if you look back at Bitcoin’s 15-year price history, you’ll find a brutal fact: a 52% decline is only considered “small potatoes” in history.

The “Drop Pattern” in Bitcoin Bear Markets

Let’s start with a set of data:

This table reveals a clear pattern: the maximum decline in each bear market cycle has been decreasing.

From 94% to 87%, then to 84%, 77%, Bitcoin’s “bear market standard” is narrowing by about 5-10 percentage points each cycle.

Looking more precisely at this decreasing pattern:

• 2011→2013: decrease of 7 percentage points (94%→87%)
• 2013→2017: decrease of 3 percentage points (87%→84%)
• 2017→2021: decrease of 7 percentage points (84%→77%)

On average, each cycle’s decline shrinks by about 5-7 percentage points.

Why?

Market Cap Base Grows, Volatility Naturally Decreases

In 2011, Bitcoin’s market cap was only a few tens of millions of dollars; a “whale” selling off could cause a 94% crash.

By 2026, even if Bitcoin halves from its peak to $60,000, its market cap will still exceed $1 trillion. To cause a trillion-dollar asset to drop another 30-40%, the sell-off volume needed is thousands of times larger than in 2011.

Institutional Entry Provides a “Liquidity Buffer”

Before 2018, Bitcoin holders were mainly retail investors and early miners. During panic, everyone would sell simultaneously, with no “buying side.”

After 2022, institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale hold hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin via ETFs. These institutions won’t panic-sell after a single crash; their presence acts like a “safety net” in the market.

According to Bloomberg data, by the end of January 2026, the total holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US exceeded 900,000 BTC, worth over $70 billion. The “lock-in effect” of these holdings directly reduces the available supply for sale in the market.

Bitcoin’s Evolution from “Speculative Asset” to “Asset Class”

From 2011-2013, Bitcoin was mainly a geek’s toy, driven entirely by sentiment.

From 2017-2021, Bitcoin started being regarded as “digital gold,” but still lacked a clear valuation anchor.

After 2025, with Bitcoin ETFs approved, the GENIUS Act promoting stablecoin legislation, and Trump proposing a “strategic reserve” plan, whether these policies are fully implemented or not, Bitcoin has shifted from a “marginal asset” to “part of the mainstream financial system.”

This evolution results in reduced volatility.

Supply Shock from Halving Cycles Is Weakening

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has been mainly influenced by the 4-year halving cycle, where new supply decreases by 50% every four years.

In 2012, during the first halving, daily new issuance dropped from 7,200 to 3,600 BTC, creating a huge supply shock.

After the 2024 fourth halving, daily new issuance drops from 900 to 450 BTC. Although the percentage change remains 50%, the absolute reduction is small, and the market impact is diminishing.

The “deflationary” effect on supply is weakening, and speculative fervor on demand side is cooling down, jointly narrowing volatility.

If history repeats, where is the “bottom” this time?

Based on the “each cycle’s decline decreasing” pattern, we can project three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Optimistic Assumption, decline narrows to 65%

If this cycle’s maximum decline is 65% (a 12 percentage point drop from the previous 77%, slightly above the historical average decline):

Bottom price = 126,000 × (1 - 65%) = $44,100

From $60,000 down to $44,100, there’s still a 26% downside.

Supporting reasons:

Institutional holdings hit a new high, ETF provides strong “buy support”

The Federal Reserve is hawkish, but the market has already priced in rate cuts in 2026, moving expectations from July to June

Trump’s March 7 White House crypto summit may release policy favorable signals

Stablecoins, despite negative growth, still have a TVL (Total Value Locked) above $230 billion

Risks:

High leverage positions like Strategy forced to sell could trigger chain reactions

Unfulfilled “strategic reserve” promises from Trump’s administration may cause market disappointment

If you believe this scenario: You should start building positions below $50,000, and consider increasing near $45,000.

Scenario 2: Neutral Assumption—decline of 70-72%

If this cycle’s maximum decline is 70-72% (strictly following the “5-7 percentage points” decline pattern):

Bottom price (70%) = 126,000 × (1 - 70%) = $37,800

Bottom price (72%) = 126,000 × (1 - 72%) = $35,280

From $60,000 down to $35,280–$37,800, there’s a 37-41% downside.

Supporting reasons:

Perfectly aligns with historical pattern, neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic

Current macro environment (rate cut expectations + balance sheet reduction fears) is similar to 2018

$35,000–$38,000 corresponds to Bitcoin’s “200-week moving average,” historically a strong support level

Risks:

If the US economy enters recession, all risk assets will face indiscriminate sell-offs

If the AI bubble bursts, tech stocks will crash, dragging Bitcoin down

If you believe this scenario: Keep your main capital ready below $40,000; $35,000–$45,000 is your “heavy buy zone.”

Scenario 3: Pessimistic Assumption—decline back to 75-80%

If this time is “really different,” and market structure collapses, causing declines to revert to the average levels of 2017-2022:

Bottom price (75%) = 126,000 × (1 - 75%) = $31,500

Bottom price (80%) = 126,000 × (1 - 80%) = $25,200

From current $70,000 down to $25,200–$31,500, it would be a 50% further drop.

Supporting reasons:

The “triple crash” on February 6th (US stocks, gold, Bitcoin all plunging simultaneously) shows Bitcoin’s “safe-haven” attribute is completely broken

ETFs, while absorbing large amounts of chips, also mean institutions can “sell off at will”

Trump’s tariffs and trade war policies could trigger a global recession

Crypto industry talent is fleeing, VC retreating (e.g., Kyle Samani from Multicoin announced departure), indicating industry confidence collapse

If you believe this scenario: You should liquidate now, wait for a total collapse below $30,000, or only keep 10-20% of your position “to gamble,” with the rest withdrawn and on standby.

Don’t fear missing out

Some people always worry: what if I miss the chance to buy at the bottom of this bear market?

The answer is simple: chase the rally or wait for the next cycle.

Cryptocurrency is not your only chance to turn your life around. If you think it is, then you’ve already lost.

In 2015, those who missed buying at $150 still had a chance at $3,200 in 2018.

In 2018, those who missed $3,200 still had a chance at $15,000 in 2022.

But only if you survive until the next cycle.

Don’t give up on the market just because of one failed “all-in” attempt.

Also, most people only care about “at what price to buy,” but ignore “when to sell.”

Here are three cases:

Case 1:

Old Zhang bought heavily at $3,200 in December 2018. By June 2019, Bitcoin rose to $13,000, and Zhang thought “bull market is here,” so he didn’t sell. By December 2019, Bitcoin fell back to $7,000, Zhang thought “it’s over,” and sold at a loss.

Final result: less than double profit, and he got shaken out, missing the $69,000 peak in 2021.

Case 2:

Xiao Li also bought at $3,200, but set a rule: “Never sell unless it hits $50,000.” During 2019-2020, he held through all volatility. In April 2021, Bitcoin hit $63,000, and Xiao Li sold 50%, locking in 15x profit. The remaining 50% held until November 2021, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, and he sold.

Outcome: average profit of 18x.

Case 3:

Old Wang started dollar-cost averaging from December 2018, investing 1,000 yuan every month, regardless of price. After 3 years, in December 2021, he stopped.

His average cost was about $12,000 (buying cheaper early, more expensive later). In November 2021, when Bitcoin hit $69,000, he sold everything, making about 4.7x profit.

Outcome: not as high as Xiao Li, but he didn’t need to “timing,” and it was the simplest approach.

These three cases tell us: bottom-fishing doesn’t matter; holding steady does.

If you don’t plan to hold forever, set a “take profit” plan in advance. Dollar-cost averaging may not be glamorous, but it’s the best method for ordinary people. Most can’t buy at the bottom and sell at the top; buying and selling in batches is always relatively better.

Final words: Bear markets are the opportunity for the poor to turn things around

In 2011, those who bought Bitcoin at $2 have already achieved 30,000x returns (even based on the recent bottom of $60,000).

In 2015, those who bought at $150 now have 400x.

In 2018, those who bought at $3,200 now have 18.75x.

In 2022, those who bought at $15,000 now have 4x.

Every bear market is a redistribution of wealth.

Those who chased prices at the top get shaken out; those who panic-sold at the bottom hand over their chips to others.

And those who truly profit are always those who dare to accumulate gradually when everyone else is hopeless.

As long as you believe Bitcoin’s price will rise even higher.

In 2018, when Bitcoin dropped to $3,200, some said: “Bitcoin is dead.”

In 2022, when Bitcoin fell to $15,000, many exclaimed that the crypto era was over.

In February 2026, when Bitcoin broke below $60,000, the world will ask: “Is this really different this time?”

If you believe “history repeats,” then the next 6-12 months are among the few times in your life to buy “at a relatively low price” for the “future.”

Whether you believe it or not, that’s your choice.