Hidden Bullish Divergence Signal Emerges as HBAR Tests Critical Support at $0.09

The technical setup for Hedera (HBAR) has caught the attention of retail market observers, who are spotting what they describe as a hidden bullish divergence pattern on longer-term charts. With HBAR trading near $0.09—down from earlier estimates around $0.10–$0.11—a vocal corner of the crypto community is interpreting recent price weakness as a contrarian buying opportunity rather than a capitulation signal. The argument centers on oversold technical readings, structural demand from new investment vehicles, and a fundamental story built on on-chain throughput that arguably exceeds current market valuation.

RSI Hits Historic Lows: Comparing Current Oversold Levels to Previous Reversals

Crypto analysts have highlighted that HBAR’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly all-time chart has reached depressed levels seen only a handful of times in its history. According to technical commentary, the RSI has printed at these extremes around three occasions: during the FTX collapse in 2022, around the 2024 bear-market lows, and in the current period as of February 2026.

The claim is that the present RSI reading is even more oversold than early 2024, before what traders describe as a rapid move from approximately $0.04 to $0.40 following Trump’s election win in late 2024. If that historical pattern were to repeat, proponents extrapolate a target range of $1–$2 per token by 2026 and predict new all-time highs (ATH) within the calendar year.

However, it’s worth noting that oversold RSI readings are not a guarantee of immediate reversal. Technical indicators can remain at extreme levels for extended periods, particularly during weak macroeconomic conditions or sector-wide downturns. The setup’s credibility depends on confirming signals—such as hidden bullish divergence formations—actually playing out, rather than RSI levels alone.

ETF Accumulation & Structural Demand: 500M HBAR Absorption in Months

Beyond pure technicals, the bull case points to new institutional demand mechanisms. The Canary Capital HBAR ETF has reportedly purchased approximately 500 million HBAR tokens—roughly 1% of the 50 billion maximum supply cap—within a short window of operation. Market participants speculate that additional HBAR investment vehicles, including potential Grayscale offerings and multi-asset basket ETFs, could arrive in 2026, though these remain unconfirmed.

This concentration of ETF buying is presented as a structural demand driver that could absorb selling pressure and support the asset. Analysts argue that if multiple ETF products launch simultaneously, absorption of HBAR supply could tighten significantly, creating favorable conditions for hidden bullish divergence patterns to manifest.

Hedera’s On-Chain Activity vs Valuation: The Solana Comparison

From a fundamental perspective, Hedera’s narrative rests on its transaction throughput. The network has processed more than 70 billion transactions on mainnet and operates at throughput levels comparable to Solana and the XRP Ledger. The Hedera governing council includes major global firms such as Google, IBM, LG, and T-Mobile, which proponents cite as evidence of enterprise-grade legitimacy.

The valuation comparison argument is straightforward: if Hedera’s on-chain activity and governance structure merit parity with Solana’s market cap, a simple market-cap-to-token calculation would imply around $1.90 per HBAR. Currently, with HBAR at $0.09 and a flowing market cap of $3.90 billion, this comparison suggests substantial upside—at least in the eyes of technical optimists spotting hidden bullish divergence setups.

That said, market cap parity is not automatic; it depends on investor perception of competitive advantages, token utility, and broader crypto market sentiment.

Technical Setup Raises Questions: What Hidden Bullish Divergence Could Mean

The key technical claim centers on hidden bullish divergence—a pattern where price reaches new lows but the RSI fails to confirm those lows, potentially signaling hidden strength. Proponents argue that HBAR’s current chart setup resembles conditions before prior rallies, creating a high-conviction contrarian play.

However, the video commentary does not address scenarios in which RSI remains depressed for months or fails as a reversal signal—possibilities that can occur especially in downtrending markets. Hidden bullish divergence is a recognized technical pattern, but like all technical indicators, its predictive power is not absolute.

For investors considering entry, the question is whether accumulating evidence—depressed technical readings, ETF inflows, and fundamental on-chain activity—constitutes a “generational entry point” or merely a temporary bounce within a broader downtrend. The spread of retail optimism around hidden bullish divergence in HBAR is itself data: it reflects how a single corner of the market is processing risk, even if the broader market consensus remains skeptical.

The disconnect between bullish technicians and bearish macro remains stark. But as of February 2026, HBAR at $0.09 has left room for both conviction-driven buyers and cautious observers to make their case.