2026-02-07 03:46:32

Short Judgment (4-Hour Cycle)

1. Key Conclusions (Use directly)

Short-term bullish (rebound), medium-term still bearish; only trade lightly with the trend, do not chase highs

2. Jin10/Market Data (Long/Short Signals)

- ✅ Bullish (Rebound)
- 24h Deep V: Low ≈ 60,000 → High ≈ 71,469, rebound ≈ 19%, liquidation clearing (24h ≈ 2.2 billion)
- Panic and Greed: 10 → 20, emotional recovery
- ETF Funds: From outflow to net inflow (≈ 100 million), institutional bottom fishing
- Support effective: Hold at 64,000, stabilize above 68,000 on the 4-hour with increased volume
- US stocks/Gold strengthen, risk appetite rebounds
- ⚠ Bearish (Medium-term)
- Weekly still down ≈ 15%, EMA50/200 bearish alignment unchanged
- Institutional deleveraging not finished, IBIT still under pressure
- Strong resistance at 70,000–72,000, volume shrinking makes it easy to fall back
- Extremely high volatility, high risk of sudden drops

3. 4-Hour Long/Short Direction (Based on your previous strategy)

- Trend: EMA50 still below EMA200 → Medium-term bearish; short-term rebound biased bullish
- Entry (try long with light position only)
- Conditions: Stabilize above 68,000 on the 4-hour + volume increase + funding rate turns positive
- Stop loss: 63,500 (≈1.5%)
- Take profit: First at 70,000 (half position closed), second at 72,000 (full close)
- Short signal (mainly observe)
- Conditions: Resistance at 70,000–72,000 during rebound + volume shrinks + capital outflow
- Stop loss: 72,500
- Take profit: 68,000 → 64,000

4. Today’s 4-Hour Trading Checklist (Check off directly)

Leverage ≤ 3x, single position ≤ 3%
4-hour EMA50/200: Medium-term bearish, short-term rebound biased bullish
Price: Stabilize above 68,000 with volume increase (go long); encounter resistance at 70,000–72,000 (go short)
RSI(14): Long ≥30; Short ≤70
4-hour candlestick has closed
Stop losses set: Long at 63,500; Short at 72,500
Take profits set: Long at 70,000/72,000; Short at 68,000/64,000
No major data/events (no non-farm payrolls or FOMC today)
Today ≤ 1 trade, stop after 3 consecutive losses

5. Final Trading Recommendations

- Main direction: Lightly try long positions, do not chase highs, take profits when the trend is good
- Risk control: Always set stop losses, never hold through losses
- Position size: ≤ 2% of total funds (more conservative than usual)

BTC-0,69%

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