Rogers Communication Q4 Results Over the Horizon: What Analysts Are Forecasting

With Rogers Communication’s quarterly earnings report approaching, Wall Street analysts are weighing in on what to expect from the Canadian telecom giant. The consensus paints a picture of mixed dynamics: while the company is anticipated to generate strong revenue growth, earnings per share face headwinds from operational pressures.

Earnings and Revenue Projections for Q4

Analysts collectively predict Rogers Communication will report quarterly earnings of $0.98 per share, down 5.8% year-over-year—a notable decline despite broader revenue expansion. This earnings contraction stands in sharp contrast to the anticipated top-line performance, where revenues are forecasted at $4.37 billion, up 11.6% compared to the prior-year quarter. The disconnect between revenue growth and earnings decline suggests margin compression may be a key factor.

Over the past month, there’s been a modest positive adjustment in earnings estimates, with consensus EPS projections revised upward by 0.7%. While this revision appears small, it reflects analysts’ recalibration of Rogers’ performance trajectory. Historically, even minor upward revisions in earnings estimates can signal improving investor sentiment and potentially support near-term stock performance.

Key Subscriber Metrics Show Mixed Picture

Beyond headline earnings figures, Rogers’ operational health is reflected in subscriber trends across its core business segments. Wireless remains the company’s growth engine, though the trajectory shows nuance:

Postpaid Mobile: Analysts forecast gross additions of 499,000 subscribers, compared to 561,000 in the same quarter last year—a slowdown reflecting heightened market competition. The total postpaid base is expected to reach 11.01 million, up from 10.77 million year-over-year, indicating net growth despite lower gross additions.

Prepaid Mobile: This segment faces headwinds, with projected gross additions at 100,910 compared to 117,000 previously. More concerning, prepaid net additions are forecasted at -5,490, reversing from a positive 26,000 last year. The total prepaid subscriber base is expected to reach 1.20 million, up modestly from 1.11 million.

Home Phone Services: Traditional voice services continue declining, with total subscribers projected at 1.40 million versus 1.51 million a year ago. This reflects the ongoing industry shift away from legacy services.

Cable and Internet: Cable subscriber relationships are anticipated at 4.86 million, up from 4.68 million, with homes passed at 10.49 million versus 10.21 million. Retail internet net additions are expected to slow to 20,070 from 26,000, though the total retail internet base should reach 4.50 million (up from 4.27 million). Video subscriber declines continue to pressure the portfolio, with projections at 2.50 million versus 2.62 million last year.

Market Outlook and Zacks Analyst Rating

Over the past month, Rogers Communication shares have declined 2.7%, underperforming the S&P 500’s modest 0.4% gain. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), suggesting its performance trajectory is likely to align with broader market movements in the near term. This rating reflects balanced risk-reward dynamics as investors await the earnings report.

The subscriber trends and earnings pressure now over the horizon suggest investors should monitor operational execution closely. While revenue growth provides some support, management’s ability to stabilize margins and inflect subscriber declines—particularly in wireless and video—will be critical determinants of investor confidence going forward.