Corn Stock Draws Support Wednesday's Rally in Futures Markets

Corn stock dynamics took center stage Wednesday as futures contracts rallied across the board, capturing positive spillover from strength in wheat markets and a softening US dollar index. The movement reflected underlying concerns about inventory levels and their implications for the commodity complex, with corn stock adjustments playing a pivotal role in the broader price action.

Ethanol Production Trends and Inventory Adjustments

Recent data from the Energy Information Administration painted a mixed picture for the ethanol sector, which directly influences corn stock demand. Ethanol production slipped 5,000 barrels per day to reach 1.114 million bpd during the week ending January 23, suggesting moderating production pace. However, the inventory story was more constructive—corn stock and ethanol reserves experienced a meaningful draw of 339,000 barrels, declining to 25.4 million barrels. This reduction in available supply provided support to prices, with the CmdtyView national average cash corn price climbing 3 3/4 cents to $3.94 1/2. Meanwhile, refiner inputs of ethanol rose 31,000 bpd to 883,000 bpd, offsetting some of the production softness.

Export activity presented a more cautious outlook. Exports fell 61,000 bpd in the same week to 157,000 bpd, reflecting the current trade environment and buyer sentiment. The pullback in shipments raised questions about demand sustainability entering the spring season.

Export Dynamics Shaping 2025/26 Season Expectations

Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring export sales data scheduled for Thursday release. The market is positioning for 2025/26 corn bookings to fall within a 1 to 2.5 million metric ton range for the week of January 22, with more modest expectations for the 2026/27 season—between zero and 200,000 metric tons. These booking levels will be critical for assessing corn stock levels and determining whether the current rally has fundamental support or is primarily sentiment-driven.

Contract Valuations Across the Curve

The repricing was evident across multiple contract months. March 2026 corn futures closed up 3 1/2 cents at $4.30, while May 2026 contracts gained 3 1/4 cents to settle at $4.38. July 2026 corn advanced 3 1/4 cents, closing at $4.44. The nearby cash market tracked similarly, with the Nearby Cash price up 3 3/4 cents at the $3.94 1/2 level.

These gains underscored how corn stock considerations are influencing market structure, with traders repricing the deferred months based on inventory expectations and seasonal supply dynamics. The consistent advance across the curve suggests the market is digesting a more balanced fundamental picture than recent weakness had suggested, positioning corn stock as a key variable for the coming weeks.