Beyond the Eli Lilly Premium: Why Amgen's GLP-1 Strategy Offers Better Value

The GLP-1 drug revolution has created a significant wealth gap among pharmaceutical companies. Eli Lilly has captured the lion’s share of investor enthusiasm, commanding a market capitalization near $950 billion. Over the past five years, the stock has surged approximately 400%, riding the wave of its blockbuster drugs Mounjaro (for diabetes) and Zepbound (for weight loss). However, this remarkable run has come at a cost: investors today pay a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 32 for Eli Lilly stock—a premium valuation that leaves little room for disappointment.

For investors concerned about missing out on the GLP-1 opportunity altogether, there’s encouraging news. The pharmaceutical landscape isn’t a one-company story. Several players are developing competitive treatments that could generate substantial returns as the market expands. One deserving of closer examination is Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN), which has been quietly developing what could prove to be a differentiated asset in this crowded space.

MariTide: Why Quarterly Dosing Could Define the Next Phase of GLP-1 Competition

The distinction between GLP-1 treatments often comes down to dosing convenience. Eli Lilly’s current offerings require weekly injections—a burden for patients seeking long-term weight management or diabetes control. While oral formulations are under development and may eventually appeal to patients who prefer pills, such treatments typically demand daily administration, creating their own compliance challenges.

Amgen’s answer is MariTide, an injectable GLP-1 candidate currently in phase 3 clinical trials. What sets it apart is its extended dosing interval. According to Amgen CEO Bob Bradway, clinical data suggests MariTide could potentially be administered just once quarterly—a dramatic leap in convenience compared to weekly alternatives. This means patients might receive treatment only four times per year rather than fifty-two times.

Clinical trial results have demonstrated that MariTide achieves meaningful weight loss, with participants losing up to 20% of their body weight over a 52-week period—comparable to existing approved treatments. For a significant portion of the patient population, however, the ability to maintain efficacy while reducing treatment frequency could prove transformative, potentially representing a genuine market advantage.

The Valuation Disconnect: A Compelling Investment Case

The financial comparison between these two companies reveals an striking asymmetry. While Eli Lilly commands a forward P/E ratio of 32, Amgen trades at just 16—representing a 50% valuation discount despite competing in the same high-growth market segment. This gap becomes even more pronounced when considering that Amgen’s stock has appreciated only 34% over the past five years, versus Eli Lilly’s 400% gain. Rather than signaling weakness, this divergence suggests that Amgen remains substantially undervalued relative to its growth catalysts.

The pharmaceutical market doesn’t reward modest valuations without reason. Amgen’s more conservative multiple reflects investor skepticism about MariTide’s approval timeline and market penetration potential. Yet the approval of this quarterly treatment could serve as a meaningful catalyst for share price appreciation, particularly if clinical development progresses as expected and regulatory agencies view quarterly dosing as a genuine therapeutic advantage.

The $150 Billion Opportunity: Why Multiple Winners Will Emerge

Market analysis suggests the global GLP-1 market could exceed $150 billion within the next decade. This scale creates sufficient room for multiple competitors to capture meaningful market share without cannibalizing each other’s success. Eli Lilly may command first-mover advantage and strong brand recognition, but Amgen’s differentiated dosing schedule could appeal to a distinct patient segment—particularly those seeking maximum convenience and improved treatment adherence.

The market dynamics suggest that Eli Lilly’s premium valuation already prices in substantial success, while Amgen’s moderate valuation offers asymmetric opportunity. Should MariTide obtain regulatory approval and achieve meaningful market penetration, shareholders could witness significant appreciation. Conversely, a delayed approval or competitive setback would present less downside risk at current valuation levels.

Weighing the Investment Opportunity

For investors evaluating pharmaceutical exposure to the GLP-1 sector, the choice between Eli Lilly and Amgen extends beyond simple preference. It reflects a fundamental calculation about valuation, catalysts, and market opportunity. Eli Lilly represents an established success story now trading at a premium price. Amgen represents an underexplored opportunity with genuine differentiation and considerably more attractive entry valuation. In an emerging market with an estimated $150 billion addressable opportunity, both companies could prove successful—but one appears positioned to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns from current price levels.