Soybean Oil Futures Decline While Meal and Bean Markets Rally Higher

Thursday morning sees sustained upward momentum across soybean complex markets, though dynamics differ significantly among the various commodities. Soybean oil futures are trading notably lower, down 10 to 13 points, creating an interesting divergence with other segments showing strength. Meanwhile, soybeans themselves and related meal products are experiencing considerable gains that started mid-week and continue into current trading.

Strong Wednesday Momentum Carries Into Thursday Session

The rally that emerged on Wednesday is extending today, with front-month soybean contracts up 7 to 9 cents in morning trade. This sustained buying interest reflects genuine market conviction—open interest expanded by 12,031 contracts as traders increased their positions. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price reflects the strength, now at $10.08 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents from prior levels. This combination of price appreciation and volume growth suggests institutional participation beyond typical speculative moves.

Soybean Meal Futures Lead Complex Higher

Soybean meal futures have emerged as the primary driver of strength across the complex, posting gains of $3.40 to $3.70. This outperformance traces directly to weather developments in Argentina, where forecasters predict drier conditions coinciding with critical growth stages. As a major soybean supplier, Argentina’s crop prospects heavily influence global meal demand expectations, creating the spillover effect that’s propelling prices higher throughout the related futures chain.

Soybean Oil Futures Tracking Opposite Trajectory

In stark contrast, soybean oil futures remain under pressure, trading 10 to 13 points lower. This disconnect reflects independent market dynamics where refined product markets face their own supply-demand balance considerations separate from crush spread movements. The divergence between soybean oil futures and the strength in beans and meal highlights how individual components respond to distinct fundamental factors.

Contract-Level Pricing Across Delivery Months

The rally penetrates across multiple contract months with consistency. March 2026 soybeans closed at $10.75, up 7 3/4 cents, and continue showing upside into Thursday with additional 8 1/2 cent gains. May 2026 contracts closed at $10.87 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents, with current trading up 8 cents. July 2026 soybeans closed at $11.01, advancing 8 1/2 cents. This breadth across the calendar suggests conviction about the fundamental backdrop rather than contract-specific positioning.

USDA Export Data Could Reshape Week’s Direction

Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s USDA Export Sales report for the week ending January 23rd. Market participants anticipate old crop soybean sales between 0.4 to 1.8 million metric tons, with new crop bookings potentially ranging from zero to 100,000 MT. Soybean meal sales expectations span 225,000 to 500,000 MT, while soybean oil futures traders are monitoring potential export commitments in a 0 to 26,000 MT range. These projections could serve as key inflection points for determining whether current momentum sustains or reverses.