Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 6, 2026

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Market Overview

Weak US employment data combined with AI panic causes US stocks to fall, cryptocurrencies and silver to plummet, and investors flock to US Treasuries for safety.

The three major US stock indices all declined over 1%, with small-cap stocks leading the decline; the Russell 2000 fell 1.8%. Of the 11 main sectors in the S&P, 9 declined, with software ETF down 5%. Oracle dropped nearly 7%, Microsoft fell nearly 5%. Amazon’s earnings report caused a 10% drop. The China concept stock index rose against the trend, with Baidu up 0.73%, Meituan up over 2%, and Dingdong Maicai down 15%.

Risk aversion drove US Treasury yields significantly lower. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 4.19%, and the 2-year yield also fell 9 basis points to 3.46%, the lowest in nearly a month.

Risk aversion also pushed the US dollar up 0.3%. The Bank of England’s dovish rate decision caused the pound to plunge 0.9%.

Spot gold fell 4%, silver plunged 19%, approaching the $70 mark.

Cryptocurrencies experienced a “bloodbath,” with Bitcoin crashing 12%, breaking below $63,000, nearly halving since October last year, and recording the largest single-day drop since the FTX collapse. Ethereum dropped 11%, falling below $1900. Crude oil declined about 2%, and Iran confirmed negotiations with the US on Friday.

During Asian trading hours, the three major A-share indices all declined, with space photovoltaics and precious metals hitting limit-downs. Kweichou Moutai rose four consecutive days, the Hang Seng Tech Index turned red at the close, tech stocks generally recovered, and Shanghai Silver plunged over 10%.

News Highlights

China

Will Chinese leaders visit the US by the end of this year? The Foreign Ministry responds.

Strong AI demand, Hon Hai’s January sales reach 730.04 billion TWD, up 35.5% year-over-year.

Meituan acquires Dingdong Maicai.

Overseas

US December JOLTS job openings hit a five-year low, well below expectations. Challenger layoffs in January total 108,000, the highest since 2009, surging 205% month-over-month.

Amid election uncertainty, Japan’s 30-year government bond auction “stabilizes the market.”

Will Woshang be sued if rate cuts are ineffective? The Bisset hearing leaves suspense: whether to sue depends on Trump.

ECB President Lagarde: Inflation is more difficult to predict than usual. The euro strengthens amid tariff shadows, and the ECB remains on hold for the fifth consecutive time.

Bank of England keeps rates steady at 3.75%, with a 5-4 vote signaling a strong dovish stance. Governor Bailey states “there is room for further rate cuts this year,” and expects inflation to fall back to 2% by April. The pound drops 0.8%, and short-term bond yields decline. Despite high current inflation, the focus has shifted from fighting inflation to addressing economic weakness and demand risks, paving the way for a rate cut cycle this year.

Bitcoin bloodbath! Crashes 12% to $63,000, over 400,000 liquidated! Market falls into a “confidence crisis.”

Amazon outspends Google in AI, with a surprise $200 billion expenditure guidance for 2023, plunging over 10% after hours.

Due to a shortage of memory chips, Nvidia will delay the release of new gaming chips.

Anthropic releases a financial research AI model, with Reuters down over 8.5%, FactSet once down 10%. OpenAI launches GPT-5.3-Codex, claiming to be the strongest coding agent to date. OpenAI introduces Frontier, targeting enterprise-level automation.

Market Close

US and European Stocks: S&P 500 down 1.23%, at 6798.40 points. Dow Jones down 1.20%, at 48908.72 points. Nasdaq down 1.59%, at 22540.586 points. Europe’s STOXX 600 index closed down 1.05%, at 611.65 points.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4075.92 points, down 0.64%. Shenzhen Component at 13952.71 points, down 1.44%. ChiNext at 3260.28 points, down 1.55%.

Bond Market: US 10-year Treasury yield fell 7.56 basis points to 4.1979%. 2-year Treasury yield fell 8.43 basis points to 3.4669%.

Commodities: Spot gold declined 4% intraday, at $4763.2/oz. Spot silver dropped 19.5%, at $70.84/oz. WTI March crude futures fell $1.85, down 2.84%, at $63.29/barrel.

Details of News Highlights

Global Highlights

China

Will Chinese leaders visit the US by the end of this year? The Foreign Ministry responds. “The Presidents of China and the US maintain communication and interaction. Regarding the specific issues you mentioned, I currently have no information to provide,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian.

Strong AI demand, Hon Hai’s January sales reach 730.04 billion TWD, up 35.5% YoY. Hon Hai Precision’s January revenue hit 730 billion TWD, a 35.5% increase YoY, demonstrating strong resilience in AI infrastructure demand. As a key partner of Nvidia, its performance growth directly reflects robust procurement in global data center servers, with first-quarter sales expected to grow 28%.

Meituan acquires Dingdong Maicai.

Overseas

US December JOLTS job openings hit a five-year low, well below expectations. Job openings in December fell to the lowest in over five years, significantly below expectations, with revisions downward for the previous month, indicating a softening US labor market heading into late 2025. Other indicators in the JOLTS report show that, despite cooling, the US labor market has not collapsed.

US Challenger layoffs in January total 108,000, the highest since 2009, surging 205% MoM. The US job market faces its worst start since the financial crisis: in January, companies announced 108,435 layoffs, up 118% YoY, the highest since January 2009, with only 5,306 new jobs planned, the lowest in January since Challenger began tracking this data in 2009.

Amid election uncertainty, Japan’s 30-year government bond auction “stabilizes the market.” Demand for Japan’s 30-year bonds rebounded, with bid-to-cover ratio at 3.64, pushing the 30-year yield down 5 basis points to 3.585%. This temporarily alleviates concerns over long-term debt, indicating that high current interest rates have attracted long-term investors like insurance companies, but the long-term trend depends on fiscal policy and central bank direction after the elections.

Will Woshang be sued if rate cuts are ineffective? The Bisset hearing leaves suspense: whether to sue depends on Trump. During the Senate Banking Committee review of the Fed chair nominee, Senator Warren asked Bisset to promise that Woshang would not be prosecuted or investigated for setting rates against presidential wishes. Bisset refused, calling Trump’s previous remarks about prosecuting Woshang a “joke,” and said Woshang is “highly qualified.” Bisset blamed Biden for inflation, stating that the media attributes affordability crises to Trump, but in fact, Biden’s policies have destroyed purchasing power, and inflation was seen during Biden’s term.

ECB President Lagarde: Inflation is more difficult to predict than usual. The euro strengthens amid tariff shadows, and the ECB remains on hold for the fifth consecutive time. The ECB decided Thursday to keep deposit rates at 2%, marking the fifth pause since June last year. Officials are closely watching the impact of euro appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation outlook. With renewed tariff risks and external uncertainties, economic growth and prices face dual pressures.

Bank of England keeps rates steady at 3.75%, with a 5-4 vote signaling a strong dovish stance. The BoE maintains rates at 3.75%, but the close vote (5:4) signals a strong dovish tilt. Governor Bailey states “there is room for further rate cuts this year,” and expects inflation to fall to 2% by April. After the decision, the pound drops 0.8%, and short-term bond yields decline. Despite high inflation, the focus has shifted from fighting inflation to addressing economic weakness and demand risks, paving the way for a rate cut cycle this year.

Bitcoin bloodbath! Crashes 12% to $63,000, over 400,000 liquidated! Market falls into a “confidence crisis.” Bitcoin plunged 12% on Thursday, hitting a 16-month low, with a wave of risk asset sell-offs pushing the world’s largest cryptocurrency into a new downtrend. According to Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, liquidations of long positions across tokens totaled $1.703 billion, with 400,000 traders liquidated globally. Some market observers believe that breaking below $70,000 could trigger larger sell-offs, possibly falling back to the lows seen after the early 2024 rebound.

Amazon outspends Google in AI, with a surprise $200 billion expenditure guidance for 2023, plunging over 10% after hours. Amazon’s Q4 revenue increased 14% YoY, with cloud AWS revenue exceeding expectations by 24%, reaching over three-year highs. Free cash flow shrank over 70% year-over-year, with property and equipment spending up nearly 59% for the year; AI, chips, robotics, and low-earth orbit satellites accounted for over $10 billion in capital expenditure. Revenue for Q1 is expected to grow up to 15%, with operating profit up nearly 17% or down 10%, partly due to $1 billion increased costs for low-earth orbit satellites.

Due to a shortage of memory chips, Nvidia will delay the release of new gaming chips. The global AI boom has caused a shortage of memory chips, prompting Nvidia to delay new gaming GPU launches—its first in nearly 30 years to skip a full-year new gaming chip release. The company has prioritized allocating scarce memory chip capacity to profitable AI businesses, significantly reducing gaming GPU production.

Anthropic releases a financial research AI model, with Reuters down over 8.5%, FactSet once down 10%. Anthropic launched Claude Opus4.6, an AI model specialized in financial research, capable of quickly analyzing corporate data, regulatory documents, and market information, with significant upgrades in programming and multitasking. After release, financial data service stocks plunged, with FactSet dropping up to 10%, Thomson Reuters down over 8.5%, hitting a new low since March 2020, reigniting fears of traditional software being replaced by AI.

OpenAI launches GPT-5.3-Codex, claiming to be the strongest coding agent to date, scheduled for release nearly simultaneously with Anthropic’s flagship model Claude Opus 4.6. The new model outperforms in multiple benchmarks and is participating in its own training and deployment for the first time. Industry experts see this as the official start of the AI coding war around enterprise software development.

OpenAI launches Frontier, targeting enterprise automation. OpenAI announced Thursday the enterprise AI agent platform Frontier, designed to help companies build, deploy, and manage AI agents more easily, integrating multi-source data for tasks like file processing and code execution. The platform supports collaboration with competitors like Anthropic and Microsoft, not replacing existing software but serving as infrastructure for enterprise AI deployment. OpenAI executives say by year-end, many digital workflows of leading companies will be commanded by humans and executed by AI agents. Meanwhile, Anthropic also released a financial research AI model on the same day, intensifying market concerns about traditional software being replaced by AI.

OpenAI’s dominance diminishes appeal; Wall Street begins “liquidating” OpenAI concept stocks, with Google up 36% as the winner. Wall Street’s attitude toward OpenAI has shifted from enthusiasm to concern. Due to losses and doubts about fulfillment capability, stocks of its close partners Microsoft and Oracle have plummeted. Meanwhile, Google, driven by Gemini 3’s financial returns and 48% cloud revenue growth, stands out with a $4 trillion market cap, supporting the index’s prosperity and potentially winning the AI race in the second half.

• Why are tech giants investing heavily in OpenAI? Nvidia, Amazon, and others are participating in OpenAI’s hundreds-of-billion-dollar funding rounds. Analysts believe OpenAI has become a valuation hinge for tech giants; without continuous funding, AI logic could collapse, risking 50%-80% of their market value. “If OpenAI cuts back on commitments to hyperscale cloud providers, they could lose $1 trillion in market cap. What’s $10 billion among friends?”*

Research Highlights

Panic spreading, selling begets more selling. Anxiety over tech stocks triggers chain reactions, shifting market sentiment from optimism to caution regarding AI narratives. Software and chip stocks plunge (AMD down 17%) affecting global assets, creating a negative feedback loop. The core of the sentiment shift is that AI is seen as a threat to business models rather than just growth drivers, causing nearly $1 trillion in market value to evaporate from the software sector in a week; meanwhile, Alphabet doubles capital expenditure to about $180 billion, heightening concerns over whether high investments will pay off.

Silver’s historic top is never “expensive enough.” The true peak is often marked by rule changes: in 1980, silver prices hit a top on the day COMEX implemented “liquidation-only” trading and banned new positions; in 2011, the top was milder, occurring when CME announced margin hikes for the second time. History seems to repeat itself: in this silver cycle, CME has raised margins five times in just one month.

Did the market misunderstand? Woshang’s true benchmark: Greenspan. Woshang believes the current AI wave is “the most productivity-enhancing wave in my lifetime,” capable of creating significant Fed rate cuts without raising inflation. His views are seen as an attempt to replicate Greenspan’s monetary policy legend. Bisset supports Woshang, saying “we are in an early stage of a productivity boom similar to the 1990s, and the economy can operate at low interest rates.”

Walmart’s turnaround isn’t about becoming the second Amazon. Walmart has integrated online and offline channels to become a better version of itself.

Domestic Companies

Baidu announces a $5 billion share repurchase plan and adopts a dividend policy for the first time. Baidu’s announcement states the new repurchase plan allows the company to buy back up to $5 billion worth of shares until December 31, 2028. The board approved the first dividend policy for common stock, which may include regular and special dividends, with the first payout expected in 2026.

NIO pre-market up over 11%, close up 5.8%. The company achieved its first quarterly profit, with Q4 operating profit estimated between 700 million and 1.2 billion RMB. NIO expects to report its first single-quarter operating profit in Q4 2025, adjusted profit between 700 million and 1.2 billion RMB. Even under stricter accounting standards, profit is projected between 200 million and 700 million RMB, indicating operational improvements. Compared to a loss of over 5.5 billion RMB in the same period last year, this quarter’s improvement is about 6.2 to 6.7 billion RMB. The company attributes growth to increased sales, product mix optimization, and cost reductions. After the announcement, NIO pre-market surged over 11%.

Elon Musk’s team visits Chinese photovoltaic companies—what are they focusing on? The visit covers the entire PV industry chain, including equipment, silicon wafers, modules, and cutting-edge technologies, especially next-generation high-efficiency tech like heterojunction (HJT) and perovskite, which are believed to have advantages in theoretical efficiency and long-term cost reduction.

Overseas Macro

Trump: India will no longer buy Russian oil. Russia: No, India never said that. Analysts believe that completely stopping Russian oil purchases is unlikely due to potential economic impacts. Although India has reduced Russian oil imports in recent months, an immediate halt is unlikely, which could disrupt India’s economic growth.

Overseas Companies

Apple plans to launch a “cheaper” MacBook, using iPhone chips for the first time, with a price below $799. Although the “budget” MacBook will have lower memory specs, its performance is expected to remain smooth, and it will support Apple Intelligence, maintaining competitiveness in entry-level products. Industry sources say Apple expects annual shipments of 5 to 8 million units, about 20%-30% of last year’s Mac sales.

Google earnings call: $185 billion “must spend,” confirms partnership with Apple, Gemini is not the “end of SaaS.” Google announced 2026 capital expenditure of $175-$185 billion, mainly on servers and data centers, fully engaging in the AI arms race. It also confirmed collaboration with Apple to develop next-generation models based on Gemini. Addressing market fears of “AI replacing SaaS,” CEO states Gemini is their “engine,” not the “end,” with 95% of top SaaS companies already adopting it. Additionally, Gemini app’s monthly active users exceed 750 million, signaling Google’s move toward an “agent business” era.

• Wall Street comments on Google’s earnings: “Unbelievable” capex guidance raises profit margin concerns. Major banks note that Google’s latest capex guidance is nearly double market expectations, accounting for over a third of global data center spending by major tech giants in 2023, which could significantly squeeze short-term profits and cash flow. Despite strong Q4 growth driven by AI in search and cloud, market focus has shifted from revenue growth to sustainability of capital returns, with massive investments expected to cause free cash flow to plummet over the next two years.

“Optical module giant” Coherent earnings call: CPO receives large orders, InP chip mass production hits breakthrough, 1.6T optical modules enter explosive growth. Coherent’s Q2 revenue hit a record $1.69 billion, up 17%. Driven by AI data center demand, order shipments for data center products are over four times higher, with visibility extending to 2027. The 6-inch InP wafer capacity utilization has reached 80%. Despite strong results, stock fell 2.36% after hours. Analysts believe high market expectations caused profit-taking.

Over $200 billion mining giant “fails”: Rio Tinto abandons merger talks, Glencore drops over 10% intra-day. This is the third failed merger attempt in over a decade; if successful, it would create the largest mining and copper producer. Glencore states Rio Tinto’s key terms “seriously undervalue Glencore’s potential contribution,” especially its copper assets and growth pipeline. Media reports say Glencore seeks a 40% stake post-merger, but Rio Tinto cannot accept the premium offered.

Euro stocks’ “Black Thursday”: Maersk halves profit, Volvo plunges 14%, Vodafone’s revenue misses expectations. European markets faced a “Black Thursday”: Maersk warned that recovery in Red Sea routes could lead to freight rate declines, potentially halving annual profit, with shares dropping 7%; Volvo’s profit margin plunged 14% due to tariffs and price wars; Vodafone’s weak performance in core German market also dragged down stocks. Pessimistic earnings reports reveal industry and geopolitical pressures.

Industry/Concepts

1. Traditional Chinese Medicine | Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issue the “Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry (2026–2030).” The plan aims to establish a collaborative development system for the entire TCM industry chain by 2030, with stable supply of key raw materials, significant improvements in digital and green levels, breakthroughs in key technologies, and enhanced industry innovation. It aims to cultivate leading enterprises, develop 60 high-standard raw material bases, establish 5 innovation centers, and promote new TCM products and clinical applications.

Comment: Analysts believe China’s TCM industry has surpassed 1.2 trillion RMB, forming a complete chain from planting, decoction pieces, patent medicines, to health products. Challenges include quality fluctuations, low R&D investment, and international certification barriers. The industry is transitioning from traditional experience-based to scientific and evidence-based approaches. Policy support will boost modernization, internationalization, and innovation, shifting from resource dependence to innovation-driven growth, solidifying TCM’s high-quality development foundation. Institutions see valuation and institutional holdings at historic lows, with fundamentals gradually improving due to high base effects and reduced inventory pressures. Some companies are already validated, and with favorable policies, the sector is expected to turn around.

2. Semiconductors | According to Sina Finance, on February 5, Infineon notified customers that driven by AI data center deployment, demand for power switches and integrated circuits surged, causing shortages. To expand capacity, significant wafer fab investments are needed, and rising raw material and infrastructure costs have made internal efficiency insufficient to cover pressures, leading to price adjustments at the minimum level. The new prices take effect on April 1, with all new orders and pending shipments from that date at the new prices.

Comment: Analysts believe that the surge in AI data center construction directly boosts orders for Infineon’s power switches (like low-voltage MOSFETs) and integrated circuits, creating a strong cyclical industry uptrend. Driven by AI server applications, demand for power semiconductors and related analog/power management chips is rising non-linearly, with increased volume and specifications. The expansion of AI computing and storage capacity propagates to “power,” leading to large order inflows for power discrete devices like MOSFETs. Infineon’s capacity is shifting toward AI, further squeezing supply for traditional sectors like telecom and automotive. Meanwhile, global wafer foundry prices are rising, with costs for labor, raw materials (including precious metals and packaging materials), and energy increasing, raising costs further. Power semiconductors (power switches, MOSFETs, IGBTs) and integrated circuits are benefiting from the AI boom, seen as “price-increase tracks,” with price hikes spreading beyond Infineon to other leading domestic players.

3. Large Models | According to China Daily, on February 5, as the Beijing Winter Olympics approaches, IOC President Thomas Bach announced at the International Broadcast Center that the IOC has built the first official Olympic large model based on Alibaba’s Qianwen large model.

Comment: Research institutions believe Alibaba’s Qianwen entering the “AI service era” signals rapid domestic AI ecosystem development. Recently, Alibaba’s Qianwen app launched over 400 AI functions covering shopping, food delivery, travel planning, integrated with Taobao, Alipay, Flashtake, Fliggy, Gaode, and other Alibaba ecosystem services. It marks a transition from a chat dialogue tool to an “AI service era” application, with deep integration into Alibaba’s ecosystem, enabling seamless, closed-loop services without switching apps. Major firms are accelerating AI ecosystem construction, and with ongoing advances in domestic AI computing power, China’s AI infrastructure is moving toward a “leading development phase.”

4. Gas Turbines | According to Sina Finance, the US data center boom has triggered power shortages, with natural gas seen as the best solution. Global energy monitoring data show that by January 2026, US under-construction natural gas power capacity exceeds 29 GW, more than doubling in a year. However, many projects may not start for years due to manufacturer shortages of gas turbines. GEVernova CEO states that in 2025, GEV’s turbine contracts increased by about 80%, but most high-margin orders signed in the past two years will not be delivered until after 2027.

Comment: Southwestern Securities notes that leading gas turbine manufacturers like GEV, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are accelerating order growth, with backlog schedules reaching 4-5 years, and capacity expansion plans ongoing. GEV initially aimed for 20 GW annual capacity by Q3 2026, now moved up to H1 2026, with further expansion plans to 24 GW by 2028. To support capacity increases, GEV plans to invest $10 billion annually from 2025 to 2028. Domestic OEMs, component suppliers, and parts manufacturers are expected to benefit from this power demand cycle driven by AI data center construction.

Upcoming Market Highlights

US February Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson’s speech.

2026 Winter Olympics from February 6 to 22.

牧原食品 Hong Kong IPO, trading expected February 6.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks exist; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their circumstances. Invest accordingly at their own risk.